US & Japan Rates Content
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Probability of downward shift in 10-year JGB yield (risk scenario)
JGB yield and yield curve scenarios for December and 2HFY23-FY26
In our view, we have entered the non-linear stage of the US business cycle, where data trends and events will start to move faster with each passing month.
Thoughts on BoJ's short-term rate guidance in post-NIRP world
Weekly preview of 10- and 20-year JGB yields: Downside likely to be modest given concerns about overextended market
Downward pressure on JGB yields from falling US yields exceeds upward pressure from YCC tweaks
In our view, the Fed's "higher for longer" (HFL) view is inconsistent with a soft landing
High rates and affordability issues will have a lasting effect on housing and mortgage macro fundamentals
Into the red again… After the liquidity is gone (as its never fully different)…
September 2023 FOMC Recap: Fed Hawks Hop, Skip, and Jump but Don’t Hike
March 2023 FOMC Preview: A data dependent Fed needs to convey a hawkish message given inflation uncertainty
Powell at Jackson Hole: Aiming for Balance…
Monetary policy transmission is not broken, it's just waiting to kick into gear
On a Bizarre and Unsustainable Path…
The process to normalizing YCC continues
July 2023 FOMC Recap: Neutral hike, now they “wait and see”
July 2023 FOMC Preview: Bottom-line - Likely the last hike but they’ll stay data dependent in case inflation flares up…
July 2023 FOMC Recap: A Hawkish Skip Turned Flop
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