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BOJ Monetary Policy Navigator

October MPM preview: BoJ expected to indicate that inflation is "at level consistent with" 2% target

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October MPM preview: BoJ expected to indicate that inflation is "at level consistent with" 2% target

Key points
  • We project BoJ will leave policy rate on hold at 1.25% at October meeting after raising rates in June and September

  • Bank seen indicating that underlying inflation is "at a level consistent with" 2% target, 13 years after it was announced

  • Policy conduct likely to continue to emphasize upside risks to prices for now; we anticipate additional rate hikes in December 2026 and April 2027

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