Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

In the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Rankings for Q3 2024, MUFG was ranked #3 for G10 FX & #2 for EMEA FX.

For individual G10 FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for EUR/USD, #2 for GBP/USD, #3 for AUD/USD, and #6 for NZD/USD. For EM FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for USD/RON, #2 for USD/HUF, #2 for USD/PLN, #2 for EUR/RUB, #3 for EUR/HUF and #4 for USD/CZK.

Latest forecast update: 02 October 2024

  • FX Rates

      Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025
    USD/JPY 141.00 139.00 137.00 135.00
    EUR/USD 1.1200 1.1400 1.1500 1.1600
    GBP/USD 1.3410 1.3570 1.3530 1.3650
    USD/CNY 6.9100 6.8800 6.8500 6.8200
    AUD/USD 0.7000 0.7100 0.7200 0.7300
    NZD/USD 0.6400 0.6500 0.6500 0.6600
    USD/CAD 1.3400 1.3200 1.3000 1.2900
    USD/NOK 10.446 10.175 10.000 9.914
    USD/SEK 10.000 9.9120 9.9130 9.8280
    USD/CHF 0.8300 0.8250 0.8260 0.8280
             
    USD/CZK 22.590 22.020 21.650 21.290
    USD/HUF 355.40 352.60 351.30 350.90
    USD/PLN 3.7860 3.7370 3.7300 3.7330
    USD/RON 4.4460 4.3950 4.3830 4.3710
    USD/RUB 92.980 93.130 94.610 96.080
    USD/ZAR 16.800 17.000 17.200 17.300
    USD/TRY 35.500 37.500 39.500 41.000
             
    USD/INR 83.700 83.500 83.700 83.900
    USD/IDR 15150 15000 14900 14800
    USD/MYR 4.1200 4.0800 4.0500 4.0000
    USD/PHP 55.500 55.700 55.800 56.000
    USD/SGD 1.2900 1.2850 1.2800 1.2800
    USD/KRW 1300.0 1290.0 1280.0 1270.0
    USD/TWD 31.500 31.200 30.900 30.600
    USD/THB 32.500 32.300 32.000 31.500
    USD/VND 24400 24400 24400 24500
             
    USD/ARS 1030.0 1350.0 1450.0 1500.0
    USD/BRL 5.3500 5.4000 5.4500 5.5500
    USD/CLP 880.00 900.00 880.00 870.00
    USD/MXN 19.300 18.800 18.500 18.300
             
    USD/SAR 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500
    USD/EGP 48.300 48.100 47.600 47.500

     

  • Growth (GDP)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.6% 1.9%  
    Japan -0.1% 1.4%  
    Euro area 0.7% 1.3%  
    Germany 0.0% 0.9%  
    France 1.1% 1.3%  
    Italy 0.9% 1.0%  
    Spain 2.7% 2.0%  
    UK 1.1% 1.6%  
    Switzerland 1.4% 1.6%  
    Norway 0.7% 1.4%  
    Sweden 0.7% 1.8%  
    Canada 0.9% 1.8%  
    Australia 1.3% 2.3%  
    New Zealand 0.7% 2.2%  
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 4.8% 4.6% 4.7%
    India 6.9% 6.7% 6.8%
    Indonesia 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%
    Malaysia 5.0% 4.7% 4.5%
    Philippines 6.2% 7.0% 6.5%
    Singapore 2.4% 2.6% 2.7%
    South Korea 2.5% 2.3% 2.0%
    Taiwan 3.8% 2.8% 2.5%
    Thailand 2.9% 3.1% 3.3%
    Vietnam 5.8% 6.8% 6.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 3.1% 3.0% 2.6%
    Czech Rep. 0.9% 2.3% 2.5%
    Egypt 2.8% 4.2% 4.7%
    Hungary 2.2% 3.3% 3.1%
    Iraq 0.7% 2.7% 1.9%
    Israel 1.5% 4.7% 3.4%
    Jordan 2.5% 2.8% 2.9%
    Kenya 5.0% 5.4% 5.3%
    Kuwait -1.2% 3.3% 3.0%
    Morocco 3.1% 3.4% 3.4%
    Nigeria 3.1% 3.0% 3.1%
    Oman 1.4% 3.0% 2.9%
    Poland 3.1% 3.6% 3.3%
    Romania 2.6% 3.6% 3.7%
    Qatar 2.0% 2.2% 5.5%
    Russia 3.3% 1.6% 1.3%
    Saudi Arabia 1.6% 4.6% 4.0%
    South Africa 1.0% 1.4% 1.6%
    Turkey 3.4% 2.9% 3.4%
    Ukraine 3.4% 5.7% 5.3%
    UAE 3.6% 4.1% 4.1%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 3.1% 2.4%  
    Japan 2.5% 2.3%  
    Euro area 2.5% 2.1%  
    Germany 2.5% 2.1%  
    France 2.6% 2.0%  
    Italy 1.3% 1.8%  
    Spain 3.0% 2.2%  
    UK 2.6% 2.3%  
    Switzerland 1.4% 1.2%  
    Norway 3.5% 2.4%  
    Sweden 3.0% 1.9%  
    Canada 2.5% 2.1%  
    Australia 3.5% 2.9%  
    New Zealand 3.1% 2.2%  
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 0.4% 1.2% 1.7%
    India 4.5% 4.3% 4.3%
    Indonesia 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%
    Malaysia 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%
    Philippines 3.2% 3.3% 3.0%
    Singapore 2.5% 1.9% 1.8%
    South Korea 2.4% 2.0% 1.6%
    Taiwan 2.2% 1.8% 1.7%
    Thailand 1.0% 1.9% 2.0%
    Vietnam 4.1% 4.0% 3.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 1.3% 1.8% 2.0%
    Czech Rep. 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
    Egypt 31.4% 21.3% 11.4%
    Hungary 3.9% 3.6% 3.1%
    Iraq 2.0% 2.0% 1.9%
    Israel 2.6% 2.7% 2.1%
    Jordan 2.4% 2.3% 2.2%
    Kenya 6.0% 5.5% 5.3%
    Kuwait 3.1% 2.6% 2.3%
    Morocco 2.3% 2.5% 2.2%
    Nigeria 28.8% 22.2% 14.9%
    Oman 1.1% 1.5% 1.8%
    Poland 4.4% 4.7% 3.2%
    Romania 5.8% 4.0% 3.3%
    Qatar 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
    Russia 7.2% 4.9% 4.1%
    Saudi Arabia 2.1% 2.0% 2.1%
    South Africa 4.8% 4.5% 4.6%
    Turkey 59.2% 33.9% 20.7%
    Ukraine 6.0% 7.4% 5.9%
    UAE 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
  • Policy Rates

      Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025
    Fed 4.13% 3.63% 3.13% 2.88%
    BoJ 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% 1.00%
    ECB 3.00% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00%
    BoE 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.25%
    SNB 0.75% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
    Norges Bank 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.50%
    Riksbank 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00%
    BoC 3.75% 3.25% 2.75% 2.50%
    RBA 4.35% 4.10% 3.85% 3.60%
    RBNZ 4.25% 3.75% 3.25% 3.00%
             
      Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025
    China 7-day Repo 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
    China 1-year MLF 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
    China 1-year LPR 3.15% 3.15% 3.15% 3.15%
    India 6.25% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
    Indonesia 5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 4.75%
    Malaysia 3.00% 3.00% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 5.75% 5.50% 5.25% 5.00%
    Singapore 3.30% 3.10% 2.90% 2.70%
    South Korea 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50%
    Taiwan 2.00% 2.00% 1.88% 1.75%
    Thailand 2.50% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
             
      Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025
    Bahrain 7.00% 5.00% 4.25% 3.75%
    Czech Rep. 4.50% 3.25% 3.00% 3.00%
    Egypt 25.25% 25.25% 25.25% 20.25%
    Hungary 6.75% 5.25% 4.75% 4.50%
    Iraq 4.00% 4.00% 3.25% 2.75%
    Israel 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% 4.00%
    Jordan 8.25% 5.75% 5.00% 4.50%
    Kenya 12.75% 12.50% 12.00% 12.00%
    Kuwait 4.25% 3.25% 2.50% 2.00%
    Morocco 2.75% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
    Nigeria 26.75% 26.75% 26.25% 25.00%
    Oman 5.40% 4.75% 4.00% 3.50%
    Poland 5.75% 5.75% 5.75% 5.75%
    Romania 6.50% 6.25% 6.00% 5.75%
    Qatar 6.00% 6.00% 5.25% 4.75%
    Russia 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00%
    Saudi Arabia 5.50% 4.50% 3.75% 3.25%
    South Africa 8.25% 7.75% 7.75% 7.50%
    Turkey 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 37.50%
    Ukraine 13.00% 12.00% 11.00% 11.00%
    UAE 5.40% 4.00% 3.25% 2.75%
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.50% 3.38% 3.38% 3.25%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 3.88% 3.88% 3.75% 3.75%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 2.20% 2.00% 1.90% 1.90%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.20% 2.10% 1.90% 2.00%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 0.60% 0.80% 0.90% 1.00%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 1.10% 1.20% 1.30% 1.50%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 4.20% 4.10% 3.90% 3.60%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.00% 3.90% 3.70% 3.60%
  • Commodities

      Unit Q3-24 Q4-24 Q1-25 Q2-25 Q3-25 Q4-25   2024 2025 2026
    US Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 2.10 2.60 2.90 3.10 2.85 3.00   2.50 2.96 2.10
    EU Natural Gas EUR/MWh 33.50 38.00 31.00 28.00 22.00 23.00   33.22 26.00 18.00
    WTI Crude USD/b 77.00 79.00 75.00 76.00 79.00 80.00   77.47 77.50 85.00
    Brent Crude USD/b 82.00 84.00 80.00 81.00 84.00 85.00   82.01 82.50 90.00
    EU ETS EUA EUR/MT 68.00 72.00 73.00 75.00 79.00 82.00   67.83 77.25 85.00
                           
    Copper USD/lb 9,275 9,350 9,800 10,300 10,750 10,850   9,259 10,425 11,500
    Aluminium USD/MT 2,390 2,415 2,475 2,550 2,600 2,750   2,403 2,594 2,800
    Zinc USD/MT 2,800 2,950 2,520 2,600 2,625 2,675   2,775 2,605 2,850
    Nickel USD/MT 16,525 17,150 16,850 16,750 16,900 17,350   17,293 16,963 17,250
                           
    Gold USD/t oz 2,480 2,750 2,850 2,775 2,900 3,050   2,450 2,894 3,100
    Silver USD/t oz 29.20 30.30 29.40 30.40 29.20 29.80   28.39 29.70 30.20
    Platinum USD/t oz 951 975 1,015 1,045 1,020 1,045   964.35 1,031 1,090
    Palladium USD/t oz 942 925 940 960 965 1,020   965 971 1,050
                           
    Hard Coking Coal USD/MT 218.00 225.00 240.00 280.00 265.00 250.00   248.84 258.75 320.00
    Iron Ore USD/MT 94.00 90.00 105.00 95.00 110.00 115.00   101.60 106.25 155.00
                           
    Soybean USD/bu 1,020 1,060 1,020 1,165 1,200 1,225   1,108 1,153 1,175
    Wheat USD/bu 570.00 600.00 615.00 635.00 650.00 640.00   611.25 635.00 690.00
    Corn USD/bu 410.00 430.00 420.00 450.00 475.00 480.00   446.05 456.25 525.00
    Cotton USD/lb 69.00 74.00 70.00 72.00 75.00 78.00   75.47 73.75 85.00
    Coffee USD/lb 4,450 4,800 4,950 4,250 4,000 3,750   3,973 4,238 3,500
    Sugar USD/lb 18.75 20.50 21.50 21.25 22.50 23.00   20.23 22.06 22.00

I understand that any materials on this website have been produced only for persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction and in jurisdictions which the MUFG entity producing the material is permitted to do so under applicable laws, rules and regulations.

I also understand that all materials on this website are not investment research or investment advice.