Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

In the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Rankings for Q3 2024, MUFG was ranked #3 for G10 FX & #2 for EMEA FX.

For individual G10 FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for EUR/USD, #2 for GBP/USD, #3 for AUD/USD, and #6 for NZD/USD. For EM FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for USD/RON, #2 for USD/HUF, #2 for USD/PLN, #2 for EUR/RUB, #3 for EUR/HUF and #4 for USD/CZK.

Latest FX forecast update: 3 December 2024

  • FX Rates

      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    USD/JPY 154.00 152.00 150.00 148.00
    EUR/USD 1.0200 1.0500 1.0600 1.0800
    GBP/USD 1.2360 1.2800 1.2930 1.3010
    USD/CNY 7.4000 7.5000 7.5000 7.4000
    AUD/USD 0.6350 0.6300 0.6500 0.6600
    NZD/USD 0.5800 0.5750 0.5900 0.6000
    USD/CAD 1.4400 1.4100 1.3900 1.3700
    USD/NOK 11.765 11.619 11.415 11.019
    USD/SEK 11.569 11.524 11.321 10.926
    USD/CHF 0.9020 0.8760 0.8770 0.8700
             
    USD/CZK 25.100 24.570 24.430 23.800
    USD/HUF 408.80 400.00 398.10 393.50
    USD/PLN 4.2650 4.1900 4.1980 4.0740
    USD/RON 4.8820 4.7710 4.7550 4.6940
    USD/RUB 113.97 117.36 121.71 125.48
    USD/ZAR 18.500 18.750 19.000 18.750
    USD/TRY 37.500 40.000 41.500 42.500
             
    USD/INR 85.200 85.500 85.700 86.000
    USD/IDR 16250 16210 16170 16100
    USD/MYR 4.5700 4.5500 4.5200 4.4800
    USD/PHP 59.700 59.300 59.000 58.800
    USD/SGD 1.3800 1.3750 1.3700 1.3650
    USD/KRW 1430.0 1450.0 1450.0 1440.0
    USD/TWD 33.100 33.300 33.200 33.000
    USD/THB 36.100 36.000 35.700 35.500
    USD/VND 25800 25900 25800 25700
             
    USD/ARS 1110.0 1200.0 1310.0 1500.0
    USD/BRL 6.1000 6.2000 6.3000 6.4000
    USD/CLP 1030.0 1050.0 1070.0 1050.0
    USD/MXN 22.000 21.500 21.000 20.500
             
    USD/SAR 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500
    USD/EGP 49.700 49.300 49.100 48.700
  • Growth (GDP)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.6% 2.2%  
    Japan -0.1% 1.3%  
    Euro area 0.7% 0.9%  
    Germany -0.1% 0.6%  
    France 1.1% 0.8%  
    Italy 0.8% 0.8%  
    Spain 3.1% 2.2%  
    UK 1.0% 1.6%  
    Switzerland 1.4% 1.3%  
    Norway 0.7% 1.3%  
    Sweden 0.8% 1.4%  
    Canada 1.0% 1.7%  
    Australia 1.2% 2.0%  
    New Zealand 0.5% 1.9%  
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 4.8% 4.6% 4.7%
    India 6.9% 6.7% 6.8%
    Indonesia 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%
    Malaysia 5.0% 4.7% 4.5%
    Philippines 6.2% 7.0% 6.5%
    Singapore 2.4% 2.6% 2.7%
    South Korea 2.5% 2.3% 2.0%
    Taiwan 3.8% 2.8% 2.5%
    Thailand 2.9% 3.1% 3.3%
    Vietnam 5.8% 6.8% 6.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 3.2% 3.0% 2.7%
    Czech Rep. 0.8% 2.3% 2.4%
    Egypt 2.8% 4.1% 4.8%
    Hungary 2.0% 3.3% 3.1%
    Iraq 0.7% 2.7% 1.9%
    Israel 1.5% 4.6% 3.4%
    Jordan 2.5% 2.8% 2.9%
    Kenya 5.0% 5.4% 5.3%
    Kuwait -1.4% 3.3% 2.8%
    Morocco 3.1% 3.4% 3.6%
    Nigeria 3.1% 3.0% 3.1%
    Oman 1.4% 3.1% 3.1%
    Poland 3.1% 3.6% 3.4%
    Romania 2.5% 3.6% 3.7%
    Qatar 2.0% 2.3% 5.5%
    Russia 3.4% 1.5% 1.3%
    Saudi Arabia 1.6% 4.6% 4.0%
    South Africa 1.0% 1.5% 1.7%
    Turkey 3.3% 2.9% 3.4%
    Ukraine 3.4% 5.5% 5.3%
    UAE 3.5% 4.4% 4.2%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.9% 2.5%  
    Japan 2.5% 2.2%  
    Euro area 2.4% 2.0%  
    Germany 2.4% 2.0%  
    France 2.3% 1.9%  
    Italy 1.2% 1.8%  
    Spain 2.9% 2.0%  
    UK 2.6% 2.3%  
    Switzerland 1.3% 1.2%  
    Norway 3.3% 2.3%  
    Sweden 2.9% 1.7%  
    Canada 2.4% 2.1%  
    Australia 3.4% 2.8%  
    New Zealand 3.0% 2.0%  
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 0.4% 1.2% 1.7%
    India 4.5% 4.3% 4.3%
    Indonesia 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%
    Malaysia 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%
    Philippines 3.2% 3.3% 3.0%
    Singapore 2.5% 1.9% 1.8%
    South Korea 2.4% 2.0% 1.6%
    Taiwan 2.2% 1.8% 1.7%
    Thailand 1.0% 1.9% 2.0%
    Vietnam 4.1% 4.0% 3.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 1.3% 1.8% 2.0%
    Czech Rep. 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
    Egypt 31.0% 22.1% 12.0%
    Hungary 3.9% 3.6% 3.1%
    Iraq 2.0% 2.0% 1.9%
    Israel 2.7% 2.7% 2.1%
    Jordan 2.4% 2.4% 2.3%
    Kenya 5.9% 5.5% 5.3%
    Kuwait 3.1% 2.6% 2.4%
    Morocco 2.3% 2.5% 2.2%
    Nigeria 29.2% 22.4% 14.9%
    Oman 1.1% 1.4% 1.7%
    Poland 4.4% 4.7% 3.3%
    Romania 5.8% 4.0% 3.3%
    Qatar 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
    Russia 7.4% 5.0% 4.1%
    Saudi Arabia 2.0% 2.0% 2.1%
    South Africa 4.8% 4.4% 4.5%
    Turkey 59.3% 34.2% 20.7%
    Ukraine 6.1% 7.6% 6.0%
    UAE 2.3% 2.1% 2.0%
  • Policy Rates

      Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025
    Fed 4.38% 3.88% 3.38% 2.88%
    BoJ 0.25% 0.50% 0.50% 0.75%
    ECB 3.00% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00%
    BoE 4.75% 4.25% 3.75% 3.50%
    SNB 0.75% 0.50% 0.25% 0.25%
    Norges Bank 4.75% 4.25% 3.75% 3.50%
    Riksbank 2.50% 2.00% 1.75% 1.75%
    BoC 3.50% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50%
    RBA 4.35% 4.10% 3.60% 3.35%
    RBNZ 4.25% 3.75% 3.25% 2.75%
             
      Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025
    China 7-day Repo 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
    China 1-year MLF 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
    China 1-year LPR 3.15% 3.15% 3.15% 3.15%
    India 6.25% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
    Indonesia 5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 4.75%
    Malaysia 3.00% 3.00% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 5.75% 5.50% 5.25% 5.00%
    Singapore 3.30% 3.10% 2.90% 2.70%
    South Korea 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50%
    Taiwan 2.00% 2.00% 1.88% 1.75%
    Thailand 2.50% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
             
      Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025
    Bahrain 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50%
    Czech Rep. 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25%
    Egypt 27.25% 20.25% 16.75% 13.25%
    Hungary 6.25% 5.75% 5.50% 5.25%
    Iraq 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 3.00%
    Israel 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50%
    Jordan 7.25% 6.75% 6.25% 5.75%
    Kenya 12.00% 12.00% 11.50% 11.00%
    Kuwait 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00%
    Morocco 2.75% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
    Nigeria 26.75% 26.00% 24.00% 22.00%
    Oman 4.75% 4.25% 3.75% 3.50%
    Poland 5.75% 5.75% 5.25% 4.75%
    Romania 6.25% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00%
    Qatar 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50%
    Russia 19.50% 18.00% 16.50% 15.00%
    Saudi Arabia 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00%
    South Africa 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00%
    Turkey 50.00% 45.00% 41.50% 35.00%
    Ukraine 12.75% 12.00% 11.50% 11.00%
    UAE 4.25% 3.75% 3.25% 3.00%
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.75% 3.63% 3.50% 3.13%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.00% 3.88% 4.00% 3.88%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 2.20% 2.00% 1.90% 1.90%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.30% 2.20% 1.90% 2.00%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 0.55% 0.70% 0.90% 1.10%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 0.95% 1.10% 1.20% 1.30%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 4.40% 4.20% 4.00% 3.70%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.30% 4.10% 3.90% 3.80%
  • Commodities

      Unit Q4-24 Q1-25 Q2-25 Q3-25 Q4-25   2024 2025 2026
    US Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 2.60 2.90 3.10 2.85 3.00   2.60 2.96 2.10
    EU Natural Gas EUR/MWh 38.00 31.00 28.00 22.00 23.00   33.89 26.00 18.00
    WTI Crude USD/b 70.00 68.00 64.00 69.00 72.00   74.97 68.25 78.00
    Brent Crude USD/b 75.00 73.00 69.00 74.00 77.00   79.65 73.25 83.00
    EU ETS EUA EUR/MT 72.00 73.00 75.00 79.00 82.00   67.83 77.25 85.00
                         
    Copper USD/lb 9,350 9,800 10,300 10,750 10,850   9,259 10,425 11,500
    Aluminium USD/MT 2,575 2,600 2,650 2,575 2,750   2,443 2,644 2,800
    Zinc USD/MT 2,950 2,520 2,600 2,625 2,675   2,775 2,605 2,850
    Nickel USD/MT 17,150 16,850 16,750 16,900 17,350   17,293 16,963 17,250
                         
    Gold USD/t oz 2,750 2,850 2,775 3,050 3,080   2,450 2,939 3,280
    Silver USD/t oz 30.30 29.40 30.40 29.20 29.80   28.39 29.70 30.20
    Platinum USD/t oz 975 1,015 1,045 1,020 1,045   964.35 1,031 1,090
    Palladium USD/t oz 925 940 960 965 1,020   965 971 1,050
                         
    Hard Coking Coal USD/MT 225.00 240.00 280.00 265.00 250.00   248.84 258.75 320.00
    Iron Ore USD/MT 102.00 95.00 90.00 93.00 98.00   104.12 94.00 155.00
                         
    Soybean USD/bu 1,060 1,020 1,165 1,200 1,225   1,108 1,153 1,175
    Wheat USD/bu 600.00 615.00 635.00 650.00 640.00   611.25 635.00 690.00
    Corn USD/bu 430.00 420.00 450.00 475.00 480.00   446.05 456.25 525.00
    Cotton USD/lb 74.00 70.00 72.00 75.00 78.00   75.47 73.75 85.00
    Coffee USD/lb 4,800 4,950 4,250 4,000 3,750   3,973 4,238 3,500
    Sugar USD/lb 20.50 21.50 21.25 22.50 23.00   20.23 22.06 22.00

I understand that any materials on this website have been produced only for persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction and in jurisdictions which the MUFG entity producing the material is permitted to do so under applicable laws, rules and regulations.

I also understand that all materials on this website are not investment research or investment advice.