Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

In the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Rankings for Q3 2024, MUFG was ranked #3 for G10 FX & #2 for EMEA FX.

For individual G10 FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for EUR/USD, #2 for GBP/USD, #3 for AUD/USD, and #6 for NZD/USD. For EM FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for USD/RON, #2 for USD/HUF, #2 for USD/PLN, #2 for EUR/RUB, #3 for EUR/HUF and #4 for USD/CZK.

Latest FX forecast update: 02 July 2025

  • FX Rates

      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    DXY 96.490 95.060 93.530 92.680
    USD/JPY 142.00 140.00 138.00 136.00
    EUR/USD 1.1800 1.2000 1.2200 1.2300
    GBP/USD 1.3800 1.3950 1.4100 1.4140
    USD/CNY 7.2500 7.2500 7.2300 7.2000
    AUD/USD 0.6500 0.6600 0.6700 0.6800
    NZD/USD 0.6000 0.6100 0.6200 0.6300
    USD/CAD 1.3600 1.3500 1.3300 1.3200
    USD/NOK 10.000 9.8330 9.5900 9.4310
    USD/SEK 9.4920 9.2500 9.0160 8.8620
    USD/CHF 0.7970 0.7920 0.7830 0.7800
             
    USD/CZK 20.760 20.250 19.840 19.510
    USD/HUF 335.60 333.30 331.10 331.70
    USD/PLN 3.5590 3.5330 3.4920 3.4800
    USD/RON 4.2970 4.2420 4.1970 4.1790
    USD/RUB 78.630 79.820 80.980 83.370
    USD/ZAR 17.500 17.250 17.000 17.000
    USD/TRY 42.000 43.750 45.500 47.000
             
    USD/INR 85.000 84.500 84.000 84.000
    USD/IDR 15810 15650 15670 15700
    USD/MYR 4.1500 4.1100 4.0800 4.0600
    USD/PHP 56.000 55.500 55.000 55.500
    USD/SGD 1.2700 1.2600 1.2550 1.2500
    USD/KRW 1370.0 1380.0 1375.0 1365.0
    USD/TWD 29.800 29.800 29.650 29.500
    USD/THB 32.800 32.500 32.400 32.300
    USD/VND 26350 26300 26300 26300
             
    USD/ARS 1225.0 1275.00 1325.0 1400.0
    USD/BRL 5.3000 5.3500 5.4000 5.5000
    USD/CLP 925.00 930.00 935.00 940.00
    USD/MXN 18.500 18.750 19.000 19.000
             
    USD/SAR 60.000 58.000 57.000 59.000
    USD/EGP 65.000 63.000 62.000 64.000
  • Growth (GDP)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.8% 1.5% 1.6%
    Japan 0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
    Euro area 0.9% 0.8% 1.1%
       Germany -0.2% 0.1% 1.1%
       France 1.2% 0.5% 0.8%
       Italy 0.7% 0.5% 0.7%
    UK 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%
    Switzerland 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
    Norway 0.6% 1.2% 1.4%
    Sweden 1.0% 1.8% 2.0%
    Canada 1.5% 1.3% 1.1%
    Australia 1.1% 2.0% 2.3%
    New Zealand -0.5% 1.1% 2.3%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
    India 6.0% 6.2% 6.7%
    Indonesia 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
    Malaysia 5.1% 4.1% 4.1%
    Philippines 5.6% 5.7% 6.0%
    Singapore 4.4% 1.9% 1.8%
    South Korea 2.1% 1.0% 1.6%
    Taiwan 4.6% 2.9% 2.6%
    Thailand 2.5% 2.2% 2.2%
    Vietnam 7.1% 5.5% 5.4%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 2.70% 3.00% 2.90%
    Czech Rep. -0.10% 2.30% 2.40%
    Egypt 4.10% 4.20% 4.80%
    Hungary 0.70% 2.30% 3.20%
    Iraq 0.03% 4.07% 5.20%
    Israel 0.50% 3.50% 3.90%
    Jordan 2.30% 2.60% 2.70%
    Kenya 5.00% 5.00% 5.30%
    Kuwait -0.90% 3.00% 2.90%
    Morocco 3.00% 3.90% 3.80%
    Nigeria 3.00% 3.30% 3.40%
    Oman 1.70% 3.20% 3.00%
    Poland 2.80% 3.30% 3.20%
    Romania 1.20% 2.90% 2.90%
    Qatar 2.00% 2.70% 5.20%
    Russia 3.60% 1.60% 1.40%
    Saudi Arabia 1.20% 4.60% 4.60%
    South Africa 0.70% 1.70% 1.90%
    Turkey 3.00% 2.60% 3.50%
    Ukraine 3.90% 3.40% 4.80%
    UAE 3.70% 5.00% 4.20%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 3.0% 3.1% 2.8%
    Japan 2.7% 2.3% 1.4%
    Euro area 2.4% 2.0% 2.0%
       Germany 2.5% 2.2% 2.1%
       France 2.3% 1.1% 1.7%
       Italy 1.1% 1.9% 1.7%
    UK 2.5% 3.0% 2.2%
    Switzerland 1.1% 0.3% 0.8%
    Norway 3.2% 2.4% 2.1%
    Sweden 2.9% 1.1% 1.7%
    Canada 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
    Australia 3.2% 2.4% 2.5%
    New Zealand 2.9% 2.0% 2.0%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
    India 4.6% 3.4% 4.2%
    Indonesia 2.3% 1.8% 1.8%
    Malaysia 1.8% 1.6% 1.6%
    Philippines 3.2% 1.8% 3.2%
    Singapore 2.4% 1.1% 1.5%
    South Korea 2.3% 2.0% 1.9%
    Taiwan 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%
    Thailand 0.4% 0.5% 1.0%
    Vietnam 3.6% 3.5% 3.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 1.0% 1.7% 1.9%
    Czech Rep. 2.5% 2.3% 2.1%
    Egypt 31.0% 18.5% 12.0%
    Hungary 3.7% 4.2% 3.5%
    Iraq 1.6% 3.5% 3.5%
    Israel 3.1% 2.9% 2.3%
    Jordan 1.5% 2.0% 2.2%
    Kenya 4.6% 4.9% 5.2%
    Kuwait 3.0% 2.5% 2.3%
    Morocco 1.6% 2.2% 2.1%
    Nigeria 32.6% 25.8% 15.0%
    Oman 0.7% 1.3% 1.2%
    Poland 3.8% 4.4% 3.2%
    Romania 5.5% 3.9% 3.9%
    Qatar 1.2% 1.7% 1.9%
    Russia 8.1% 7.6% 5.4%
    Saudi Arabia 1.7% 1.9% 1.9%
    South Africa 4.6% 4.1% 4.5%
    Turkey 59.9% 32.5% 21.0%
    Ukraine 6.1% 11.6% 6.7%
    UAE 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%
  • Policy Rates

      Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026
    Fed 4.33% 3.88% 3.38% 3.38%
    BoJ 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% 1.00%
    ECB 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.50%
    BoE 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50%
    SNB 0.00% -0.25% -0.25% -0.25%
    Norges Bank 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75%
    Riksbank 2.00% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
    BoC 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 2.00%
    RBA 3.85% 3.60% 3.35% 3.35%
    RBNZ 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.75%
             
      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    China 7-day Repo 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 1.00%
    China 1-year LPR 2.80% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%
    India 5.50% 5.25% 5.25% 5.25%
    Indonesia 5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 4.75%
    Malaysia 3.00% 3.00% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
    Singapore 2.25% 2.30% 2.15% 2.10%
    South Korea 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50%
    Taiwan 2.00% 1.88% 1.75% 1.63%
    Thailand 1.50% 1.25% 1.00% 1.00%
    Vietnam 4.25% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
             
      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    Bahrain 6.00% 5.75% 5.75% 5.50%
    Czech Rep. 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.25%
    Egypt 25.00% 22.00% 20.00% 18.25%
    Hungary 6.50% 6.50% 6.25% 5.75%
    Iraq 4.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
    Israel 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% 4.00%
    Jordan 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% 6.75%
    Kenya 10.75% 10.50% 10.25% 9.75%
    Kuwait 4.00% 3.75% 3.65% 3.50%
    Morocco 2.50% 2.25% 2.25% 2.00%
    Nigeria 27.50% 27.00% 26.00% 25.00%
    Oman 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% 4.50%
    Poland 5.75% 5.75% 5.50% 5.00%
    Romania 6.50% 6.00% 5.25% 4.50%
    Qatar 4.85% 4.50% 4.50% 4.25%
    Russia 21.00% 19.00% 18.00% 17.00%
    Saudi Arabia 4.50% 4.25% 4.25% 4.00%
    South Africa 7.50% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00%
    Turkey 42.50% 37.50% 32.50% 28.50%
    Ukraine 15.50% 15.00% 14.00% 13.50%
    UAE 4.25% 4.00% 4.00% 3.75%
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.88% 3.63% 3.38% 3.50%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.50% 4.40% 4.30% 4.30%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.80% 1.70% 1.55% 1.65%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.40% 2.30% 2.50% 2.65%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 0.80% 0.90% 1.10% 1.30%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 1.50% 1.60% 1.70% 1.80%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 4.00% 3.90% 3.80% 3.70%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.50% 4.40% 4.30% 4.30%

     

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I also understand that all materials on this website are not investment research or investment advice.