No risk-free paths ahead (after a hawkish leaning cut)
Market disappointed as Fed cuts "only 25" while claiming not a pre-set course
Summary
- As expected, the FOMC delivered a 25 bps cut. Stephen Miran was the only dissent, voting for a 50 bps cut. Notably, Bowman and Waller, who dissented in July, voted with the rest of the committee for a 25 bps cut.
- Given this was a quarterly meeting, the FOMC also came out with updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) forecasts, including a new dot plot signaling two more 25 bps cuts in 2025 (bringing the total to three potential serial cuts in 2025, in line with our preview).
- Even though our house view is now for them to cut two more times as per their new dots, we do not expect the Fed to sprint towards neutral (or at least not forecast it yet). The issue is, as we wrote in our preview, it was going to be challenging for this Fed event to meet the lofty dovish expectations priced into markets, especially for forward rates in 2026.