JGB Market Compass

10yr JGB futures market in 2024 as implied by January candlestick

  • By Jun Ishii (Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd.)
  • Jan 26, 2024
  • JGB yields
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10yr JGB futures market in 2024 as implied by January candlestick

Key points
  • 10yr JGB futures market in 2024 according to "prediction" by January candlestick (likely black candlestick) = continued decline followed by bottoming or searching for lower level

 

  • But, 30% chance "prediction" misses mark; in that case expect 2024 market to move lower then return

 

  • Keys are (1) probability of consecutive rate hikes after BoJ ends NIRP and (2) UST market trends following Fed rate cuts

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