JGB Market Compass

10yr JGB yield risk scenario: BoJ ends NIRP in March, earlier than expected

  • By Jun Ishii (Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd.)
  • Feb 02, 2024
  • JGB yields
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10yr JGB yield risk scenario: BoJ ends NIRP in March, earlier than expected

Key points
  • "Summary of Opinions" for January BoJ meeting suggests that earnest discussions about exiting large-scale easing already underway

 

  • 10yr JGB yield risk scenario (assumes ending NIRP in March) basically same as main scenario, but one month earlier

 

  • 10yr JGB yield seen topping psychologically key level of 0.75% if JGB market starts factoring in increased probability of ending NIRP in March

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