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Fixed Income Commentary

Intriguing RV graphs: Heightening rate hike expectations, receding fiscal expansion concerns

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What are “switch auctions” that have sparked debate on JGB market?

Key points

  • Ramped up expectations for rate hikes (not only this year, but over medium-term as well) following BoJ's September MPM; OIS 2Y1M forward rate surpassed 1.2%

  • Meanwhile, Takaichi announced intention to run for LDP president, but fiscal risk premiums did not widen; little movement for ASW spreads, others

  • Further upside potential amid expectations for rate hikes over medium term; Must monitor risk premium, signs of declining super-long JGB liquidity, rising volatility

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