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Fixed Income Commentary

Intriguing RV graphs: Trajectory of inflation expectations to watch in 2026

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Intriguing RV graphs: Trajectory of inflation expectations to watch in 2026

Key points
  • Market's main takeaway from Dec BoJ meeting was "dovish rate hike"; increasingly pricing in "high-pressure economy"-style monetary policy
  • Yen depreciation could prompt reassessment of 2026 narrative to "inflation drops below 2% → inflation expectations, 10yr JGB yield stops rising/decline"
  • Even if inflation drops below 2%, persistent upward trend for inflation expectations may suppress downward pressure on 10yr JGB yield
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