Fixed Income Commentary

Intriguing RV graphs: Impact of "US jobs data shock" on JGB market

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Intriguing RV graphs: Impact of "US jobs data shock" on JGB market

Key points
  • Market mood shifts dramatically following "US jobs data shock"; we examine impact on JGB market based on similar experience last year

  • Last year, JGB yields declined (mainly in futures market) on diminished rate hike expectations, ASW spreads widened in super-long zone on risk aversion

  • Meanwhile, some differences vs last year; downward pressure on yields could be more limited/temporary this time and reaction in super-long zone amplified

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