Differences of opinion among central bank policymakers and implications for term premia
Key points
Recent monetary policy meetings in major economies have revealed internal differences of opinion at central banks, reflecting the heavy uncertainty they face
We believe that internal policy divisions are linked to size of term premia, with split votes tending to result in steeper yield curve
Attention at upcoming BoJ meetings should focus not only on whether Bank hikes but also on number of votes for and against decision and distribution of inflation forecasts