Revising expected timing of next BoJ rate rise as December hike now seems inevitable
Key points
- We have revised our outlook for next BoJ rate hike, now expecting it to come at December 18-19 MPM instead of at January 2026 meeting
- Governor Ueda said in his December 1 speech that Bank is "actively collecting information" in preparation for December MPM
- Takaichi cabinet's stance on rate increase remains somewhat unclear, but it cannot ignore risk of yen weakness reigniting inflationary pressures