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Middle East Daily
SOOJIN KIM
Research Analyst
DIFC Branch – Dubai
T: +44(4)387 5031
E: soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp
MUFG Bank, Ltd. and MUFG Securities plc
A member of MUFG, a global financial group
Middle East Daily
COMMODITIES / ENERGY
Oil slips as Ukraine diplomacy and OPEC+ meeting come into focus. Oil prices fell, with Brent nearing USD62/b and WTI around USD58/b, as markets assessed renewed US-led diplomacy aimed at ending the war in Ukraine and the potential impact on Russian crude flows. Investors are also looking ahead to the November 30 OPEC+ meeting, where eight members have already agreed to pause further output hikes in early 2026 after a rapid ramp-up this year. Crude is set for a fourth straight monthly decline in November, weighed down by the widening supply surplus and expectations of softer demand. Still, nearly 20 market participants surveyed by Bloomberg said they doubt a Ukraine peace deal will come soon or quickly translate into higher Russian exports, and going forward the market will stay focused on whether diplomacy, OPEC+ policy decisions and shifting supply dynamics can stabilise sentiment.
Gold steadies as rate-cut bets strengthen. Gold held steady, supported by rising expectations that the US Fed will deliver another rate cut in December. Prices hovered around USD4,160/oz as recent remarks from Fed officials reinforced the case for further easing, and markets now assign roughly an 80% probability to a 25% reduction. Incoming jobless-claims data is unlikely to shift that outlook. Confidence in lower rates grew further as Kevin Hassett, a top economic adviser to President Trump and known for a dovish stance, emerged as the leading candidate for the next Fed chair. Gold, which benefits when borrowing costs fall, has climbed nearly 60% this year and is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, backed by strong central bank buying and ongoing ETF interest. After pulling back from last month’s record high, gold has been consolidating above USD4,000/oz with subdued momentum, while ETF flows have remained broadly flat over the past three weeks.
MIDDLE EAST - CREDIT TRADING
End of day comment – 26 November 2025. Pre-thanksgiving trading day. The morning showed some activity with balanced flows. Long end bonds were bid again, belly bonds were offered again. The afternoon saw little activity with spread moves again more a function of UST moves than cash price changes. Quasi sovereign were the most active sector, ADQABU, MASDAR, MUBAUH, QPETRO were active. Whilst belly bonds remained offered in these names, it feels like bids are slowly stepping up in recognition of 7/12bp wider spreads week over week and most bonds held unchanged/-2bp in the 5/10y bucket. Sovereigns had very little activity away from some stronger bids in MOROC long end, 50s closing +0.125pt/-3bp. In financials seen again FABUH 5.875 perps moving 0.125pt higher now trading around 101 (-5bp) on continued retail interest and very little new issue flipping. With a long thanksgiving weekend ahead of us no activity in primary markets in my names.
MIDDLE EAST - MACRO / MARKETS
UAE powers GCC to three-year high on corporate earnings. According to the KAMCO Invest, GCC corporate earnings reached a three-year high in Q3 2025, with the UAE driving the region’s outperformance through broad-based strength across banking, real estate, utilities, and energy. Aggregate GCC profits rose 7.9% y/y to USD65.6bn, supported by recovering materials and energy sectors, but the UAE delivered the most significant momentum. Dubai-listed companies posted a sharp 29.7% rise in profits to USD8.1bn as banks, utilities, and real estate firms accounted for over 87% of total earnings, benefiting from strong loan growth, fee income, and unprecedented property demand that lifted developers like Emaar and Emaar Development to multi-year highs. Abu Dhabi-listed firms recorded a robust 17% increase to USD11.1bn, bolstered by strong banking results, rising energy sector and consumer sector gains. Across the GCC, all market saw improved profitability, and banking earnings hit a record USD17.4bn, with UAE banks leading regional growth at 25.1%. While Saudi Arabia posted mixed nine-month results due to softer energy and materials performance despite a strong Q3 rebound, the UAE remained the region’s most consistent and fastest growing earnings engine, putting it firmly on track for one of its strongest corporate-profit years on record.
UAE commits USD1bn to rebuild Yemen’s power sector. The UAE has pledged USD1bn to overhaul Yemen’s electricity system, marking on of the largest economic support packages to the country in recent years. The investment will focus on restoring and expanding power-generation capacity across government-held regions, including new solar and wind projects, upgrades to existing oil-fired plants, and rehabilitation of transmission and distribution networks. The initiative is positioned as a major step in stabilising essential services, supporting economic recovery, and strengthening infrastructure resilience as Yemen moves deeper into its post-conflict reconstruction phase. This investment reflect the UAE’s long-standing involvement in Yemen’s development and humanitarian support, spanning years of aid delivery, infrastructure rehabilitation, and security cooperation.
