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Middle East Daily
SOOJIN KIM
Research Analyst
DIFC Branch – Dubai
T: +44(4)387 5031
E: soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp
MUFG Bank, Ltd. and MUFG Securities plc
A member of MUFG, a global financial group
Middle East Daily
COMMODITIES / ENERGY
Oil extends losing streak on rising supply outlook. Oil fell for a fifth consecutive session, with Brent nearing USD66/b and WTI around USD62/b, marking its longest losing run since early August, as signs of rising global supply fuel concerns about a looming surplus in late 2025 and into 2026. Iraq is expected to resume exports of about 230,000b/d via Kurdistan after a two-year halt, adding to pressure from OPEC+’s rapid return of shuttered barrels and higher non-OPEC production. The International Energy Agency has warned supplies could exceed demand by a record margin, overshadowing persistent geopolitical risks such as Russian export threats. Political momentum is also building, with Canadian Prime Minster Mark Carney urging faster secondary sanctions on Russia, echoing President Trump’s calls for Europe to curb Russian energy purchases, though China remains exempt from additional US tariffs.
Gold hits fresh record despite Fed caution. Gold surged to a new all-time high of USD3,749/oz in Asia today, extending a multi-session rally as investors shrugged off cautious comments from Fed officials following last week’s 25bps cut. ETF saw inflows at the fastest pace in more than three years on 19 August, underscoring investor conviction that lower borrowing costs will continue to support demand for the non-yielding metal. While Fed Chair Powell signalled a measured “meeting-by-meeting” approach to easing and other officials stressed limited room for further cuts amid inflation risks, traders remain focused on Friday’s US personal consumption expenditures data, which may strengthen the case for more monetary stimulus. The precious metals have been standout performers this year, supported by monetary easing, strong central bank purchases, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, with further upside expected.
MIDDLE EAST - CREDIT TRADING
End of day comment – 22 September 2025. Mixed day with some wider than usual dispersion in spread moves. Overall some weakness is creeping into the market. Flows were still balanced overall, RM continues to be net seller especially this afternoon saw more bonds coming out and most of the widening. Against this ETFs are still net buying. Locals seem to lighten up around new supply points. One element of weakness was certainly that the market saw bonds getting sold which are not trading every day. On the outperformance side are IG sovereign, QATAR still had a good bid in all parts of the sovereign curve, 50s closing +0.125pt/-3bp. ADGB closed similar tighter by 1/3bp although had sellers into the close in long end bonds, 54s closing unch/-1bp. Higher beta credits were weak. SHJGOV had selling of long end, mainly in 51s closing -0.625pt/+5bp. Oman also saw sellers, here across the curve, 31s closing -0.375pt/+4bp. Quasis, fins and corps closed in between that range of -2bp/+5bp. The focus here was more on new issue announcements. ALDAR tapped 34s and 35s for 290mm (non-event). Bank Muscat announced a new 5y bond and QNBK an inaugural 5y EUR green bond which caused some newly issued bonds to come off 0.125pt. It’s the first day today in a while where the markets feel weak backed by selling flows. In some names it looks like pre-positioning for new expected supply as primary markets should start to get busy away from Saudi names.
MIDDLE EAST - MACRO / MARKETS
Dubai secures record greenfield FDI in H1 2025. Dubai attracted a record 643 greenfield FDI projects in the first half of 2025, the highest for any city globally since records began in 2003, reinforcing its position as the world’s top destination for new investments. Capital inflows surged 62% y/y to AED40.4bn (USD11bn), while project count rose nearly 29% to 1,090 and job creation jumped almost 47% to around 38,400 positions. Greenfield ventures accounted for over half of total inflows, with additional investment coming from reinvestments, venture capital, and M&A. Dubai captured 8% of all global greenfield projects and more than half of the Middle East’s total, marking its eight consecutive half-year as the world leader. Authorities highlighted the milestone as evidence of Dubai’s appeal as a hub linking Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as the emirate’s ability to attract diverse industries and international investors.
Saudi Arabia expands shipping links with 30th new service in 2025. Saudi Arabia’s port authority (Mawani) has launched its 30th new shipping service of 2025 with the introduction of Marsa Ocean Shipping’s “JSS” route linking Jeddah Islamic Port and Port Sudan, offering capacity for 1,118 containers. The move reinforces efforts to strengthen Red Sea trade flows, elevate Jeddah’s global competitiveness, and advance Vision 2030 targets to raise the logistics sector’s GDP contribution from 6% to 10% by 2030. It builds on a series of recent service launches, including Blue Ocean Shipping’s BOS service to major Chinese ports. By strengthening maritime connectivity through the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf, Saudi Arabia is consolidating its role in global supply chains and signalling its determination to make the maritime sector a cornerstone of sustainable growth, economic resilience, and international influence.
