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Middle East Daily
SOOJIN KIM
Research Analyst
DIFC Branch – Dubai
T: +44(4)387 5031
E: soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp
MUFG Bank, Ltd. and MUFG Securities plc
A member of MUFG, a global financial group
Middle East Daily
COMMODITIES / ENERGY
Oil prices rise as Venezuela blockade and supply risks support market. Oil prices edged higher as the US intensified it blockade on Venezuela, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions and helping prices recover after two consecutive weekly declines. Brent crude climbed toward USD61/b, while WTI traded near USD57/b, supported by reports that US forces boarded a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude and were pursuing another vessel en route to the country. US has stepped up pressure on the Maduro government in an effort to curb its oil revenues, while additional supply risks emerged after Ukraine carried out its first drone strike on a tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean, following earlier attacks on Russian energy facilities. These geopolitical developments have helped put a flow under oil prices, as faster than expected OPEC+ output increases, rising production outside the group, and subdued global demand have kept the market oversupplied.
Gold hits record high as rate cut bets and geopolitical risks fuel rally. Gold surged to a fresh all-time high above USD4,381/oz, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and growing expectations that the Fed will deliver additional interest-rate cuts. Investors are increasingly positioning for looser US monetary policy into 2026, a supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets, while demand has been further underpinned by sustained central bank purchases and steady inflows into gold-backed ETFs. Rising global tensions have also boosted safe-haven demand, adding momentum to gold’s rebound from its October pullback. Collectively, precious metals are on track for their strongest annual gains since 1979, with several major banks projecting further upside in 2026 as investment demand increasingly competes with central banks for limiting physical supply.
MIDDLE EAST - MACRO / MARKETS
Egypt’s remittance inflows hit record levels, strengthening foreign currency buffers. Remittances from Egyptians working abroad surged to unprecedented levels in the first 10 months of 2025, reaching about USD33.9bn compared with USD23.7bn in the same period last year, according to the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), highlighting their growing importance as a cornerstone of external financing. Monthly inflows also accelerated, with remittances rising 26.2% y/y in October to around USD3.7bn, reflecting increased use of official channels following exchange-rate liberalisation and broader monetary reforms. Authorities attribute the strong performance to prudent monetary policy, improved FX market stability, and government incentives that restored confidence among expatriates, while investors note that remittances have become a more reliable and flexible source of foreign currency than traditional reserve assets such as gold. With inflows now exceeding the value of Egypt’s gold holdings and more than doubling over the past decade, remittances are increasingly seen as a strategic, renewable economic asset that supports household incomes, strengthens foreign reserves, and enhances Egypt’s resilience to external shocks.
Oman-India CEPA marks a strategic pivot in India’s Gulf trade strategy. The Oman-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) establishes a wide-ranging framework to significantly deepen bilateral trade, services, and investment ties while supporting India’s broader strategy of trade diversification amid rising global protectionism. Under the agreement, Oman will grant duty-free access on more than 98% of tariff lines covering nearly all Indian exports, while India will liberalise tariffs on about 78% of its tariff lines, together covering the vast majority of bilateral trade that exceeded USD10bn in FY2024-25. The pact is expected to boost India’s labour-intensive and manufacturing exports, and strengthen agri-food and industrial trade, while providing Oman with more predictable access to the Indian market for energy, fertilisers, and chemical products. Beyond goods, the CEPA Includes an ambitious services and investment chapter allowing 100% foreign ownership in key sectors, expanded professional mobility, and longer stays for service providers, positioning Oman as a regional gateway for Indian firms into the Gulf, Africa, and beyond, and reinforcing both countries’ long-term economic diversification strategies.
Qatar ranks among regional leaders in global social progress index. Qatar has secured a leading position in the 2025 AITi Global Social Progress Index, ranking third in the MENA region and 50th globally with a score of 73.19, placing it in Tier 2 among 170 countries assessed. The index, which measures social outcomes independently of GDP, highlights Qatar’s strong performance in meeting basic human needs, advancing health and education, and expanding access to opportunities, reflecting sustained investment in people-centric development. Qatar scores particularly well in areas such as housing, healthcare access, safety, education quality, and digital connectivity, supported by decades of infrastructure investment and robust social frameworks, while also making progress on environmental sustainability under Qatar National Vision 2030. The results underscores that Qatar’s social outcomes stem from deliberate policy choices rather than income alone, distinguishing it from many regional peers at a time when global social progress has largely stagnated since the pandemic.
