To read the full report, please download the PDF above.
Middle East Daily
SOOJIN KIM
Research Analyst
DIFC Branch – Dubai
T: +44(4)387 5031
E: soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp
MUFG Bank, Ltd. and MUFG Securities plc
A member of MUFG, a global financial group
Middle East Daily
COMMODITIES / ENERGY
Oil steady as markets weigh Russians sanctions and shifting supply dynamics. Oil prices stabilised after a sharp drop, with Brent near USD63/b and WTI below USD60/b, as investors assessed the impact of upcoming US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and the EU’s push for tighter curbs on Russia’s shadow-tanker network. The penalties have already disrupted crude flows, especially to India, and focused Lukoil to seek buyers for international assets, drawing interest from firms, which is in talks over Lukoil’s stake in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 field. Despite these disruptions and lower Russian fuel exports hitting their weakest levels since the Ukraine invasion, oil remains on track for a yearly loss due to expectations of a global supply surplus as OPEC+ and other increase output. US market data added mixed signals, with gasoline and distillate stockpiles rising for the first time in over a month while crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 3.4 million barrels. Going forward, markets will focus on how sanctions reshare trade flows, whether supply growth continues to outpace demand, and the extent to which geopolitical risks inject fresh volatility into prices.
Gold pauses as Fed cut bets recede and dollar strengthens. Gold held steady near USD4,075/oz after two days of gains as investors reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut. With the October US jobs report withhold and Fed minutes showing broad support for keeping rates unchanged through 2025, gold faces headwinds from steady policy and a stronger dollar, which saw its biggest jump since September. Still, gold remains up more than 50% this year, supported by earlier Fed easing, stronger central bank buying and continued ETF inflows. Looking ahead, traders will focus on upcoming US data, Fed communication, and currency moves to gauge whether gold can sustain its strong momentum into year-end.
MIDDLE EAST - CREDIT TRADING
End of day comment – 19 November 2025. The market continues to feel stuck in its positions. As a result it was another low volume day as a lot of bonds didn't find clearing levels. Selling flows outnumbered buying flows despite better macro markets, but given the amount of new issuance we have seen this can be expected. New SHARSK 36s closed just below reoffer/100 but wasn't really active. New BOSUH 30s still struggles to find buyers closing another -0.125pt/+3bp. In primary markets FABUH mandated an AT1 PN6C bmk bond which could price as early as tomorrow, this follows their recent EUR issuance and most likely will refinance the outstanding perps callable in 04/26. Away from new issuance the market closed 1/2bp wider. IG sovereign was quiet but still had sellers of recent ADGB 35s closing -0.125pt/+2bp. In quasi sovereign saw sellers of ADNOCM 54s and ADQABU 54s both closing -0.125pt/+2bp. with NVIDIA earnings and US numbers tomorrow the market will get the next catalyst from the macro side. New issuance look like ebbing down a bit as well, but recent new issues should remain the main focus in secondary markets for now.
MIDDLE EAST - MACRO / MARKETS
US greenlights advanced AI chips sales to G42 and Humain. The US has approved the sale of tens of thousands of Nvidia’s most powerful AI chips, equivalent to 35,000 GB300 processors for each firm, to the UAE’s G42 and Saudi Arabia’s Humain, marking a major boost to the Gulf’s ambitions to become global leaders in AI. The approvals are tied to strict security and reporting conditions designed to prevent sensitive technology from being diverted to China, following months of negotiations that shaped broader US-Gulf tech agreements. G42 pledged to divest from Huawei as part of its USD1.5bn Microsoft partnership, while Humain publicly committed not to use Chinese equipment. The move comes as US cautiously expands tech collaboration with the Gulf, having recently authorised US firms like Microsoft and Oracle to deploy advanced semiconductors in the UAE. The approval signal deepening US-Gulf cooperation in next-generation technology, albeit under tight safeguards meant to manage geopolitical and security risks.
UAE launched USD10bn national investment fund to accelerate FDI growth. The UAE’S Cabinet has approved the establishment of a National Investment Fund with an initial capital injection of AED36.7bn (USD10bn) to significantly scale up foreign direct investment (FDI) and strengthen the country’s position as a global economic hub. The fund will target high-growth sectors such as advanced technology, manufacturing, logistics, and renewable energy, while also supporting major strategic projects and public-private partnerships (PPP) to attract world-class investors. Beyond providing capital, the fund is expected to streamline investment processes, enhance regulatory efficiency, and processes, enhance regulatory efficiency, and deepen collaboration with sovereign wealth funds and global institutions. This initiatives forms a key pillar of the UAE’s long-term growth strategy, with the government aiming to more than double annual FDI inflows from AED115bn to AED240bn by 2031, reinforcing the country’s shift toward a diversified, innovation-driven economy.
