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Middle East Daily
SOOJIN KIM
Research Analyst
DIFC Branch – Dubai
T: +44(4)387 5031
E: soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp
MUFG Bank, Ltd. and MUFG Securities plc
A member of MUFG, a global financial group
Middle East Daily
COMMODITIES / ENERGY
Oil pulls back after Trump signals delay on Iran action. Oil prices fell for the first time in six days after US President Trump indicated he may hold off on military action against Iran, easing some of the recent geopolitical risk premium that had driven crude higher. Brent crude dropped more than 3% to below USD65/b and WTI traded near USD60/b after rising about 11% over the previous week as unrest in Iran and turbulence in Venezuela had lifted prices. Trump said he had been assured Iran would halt killings of protesters, reducing the likelihood of an immediate US strike that could have threatened Iranian oil output and key shipping routes. Despite the pullback, regional tensions remain elevated, including Iran’s temporary closure of airspace and US military repositioning. On the supply side, recent data showed US crude inventories rose significantly, potentially adding downward pressure on prices even as geopolitical risks continue to influence markets.
Silver pulls back after record as tariff fears ease. Silver prices retreated sharply, falling as much as 7.3%, after surging to a record high earlier in the week, as the US stepped back from immediately imposing tariffs on critical mineral imports, easing some of the supply shock concerns that had driven the rally. Profit-taking likely contributed to the decline after silver climbed more than 20% over the previous four sessions, and gold also dropped alongside silver. President Trump said instead that the US will pursue bilateral agreements and floated price floors on imports to secure critical mineral supply chains, without ruling out future tariffs, temporarily reducing immediate tariff risk. The broader metals rally earlier was supported by geopolitical and economic uncertainties that boosted demand for hard assets, but the tariff pause gave markets a reason to take profits and reassess near-term price pressure.
MIDDLE EAST - CREDIT TRADING
End of day comment – 14 January 2026. Spreads closing 3/4bp wider today. The market has seen some afternoon weakness in cash prices in line with global risk market weakness. That offset a stronger morning and cash prices in general look unchanged to +0.125pt. Whilst not alarming the widening trend in spreads remains intact. On days of UST strength we widen more than tighten on days of UST weakness. That is also supported by flows with better selling from RM accounts across names today. All said the moves are very orderly and the market is taking bonds down easily. Primary markets are adding deals though, today in my universe ENEDEV priced its 10y sukuk at T+100bp in 650mm. The issue size looks a bit lower than one would expect and the pricing is not much wider than the sovereign. That said sukuks can quickly develop their own technical, tight deals can go tighter in the secondary after all. We did see a bit of selling in OMAN names on the back of this new supply today, but also on the back of the risk off mood. If this risk off mood continues, we would expect a bit more credit differentiation and higher beta names to underperform lower ones.
MIDDLE EAST - MACRO / MARKETS
EIB backs Egypt’s green transition with USD150 million solar financing. The European Investment Bank (EIB) announced a USD150 million financing package for Egypt’s Obelisk solar project alongside the inauguration of its first phase in Qena, backing a 1.1GWp solar plant with a 100MW/200MWh battery system, the largest hybrid solar PV Project in Africa. Co-financed with the African Development Bank and supported under a Team Europe approach with the EBRD, British International Investment, EU grants, the project advances Egypt’s goal to source 42% of electricity from renewables by 2030 and aligns with EU priorities under REPowerEU and the EU-Egypt Strategic Partnership. In parallel, the EIB and IFC signed agreements to invest USD137.5 million into the RMBV North Africa and Alta Semper funds to support private sector development, healthcare, and sustainability. The EIB committed USD80 million to RMBV North Africa III and plans to invest more than USD300 million regionally. It additionally signed EUR2.7 million in grants for metro and water advisory services, and highlighted more than EUR1bn has been invested into Egyptian and regional funds since 2020 to support SMEs and deepen EU-Egypt economic integration.
Saudi Arabia signs mining cooperation MoUs with Chile, Canada, and Brazil. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources signed three international MoUs with Chile, Canada, and Brazil to expand technical and investment cooperation in the mining and minerals sector, underscoring the Kingdom’s push to build global partnerships and support the sustainable development of mineral resources. The agreements were concluded during the Future Minerals Forum held in Riyadh from January 13 to 15, which drew record participation from more than 100 countries, all G20 members, the EU, and dozens of multilateral organisations and industry groups. The signings highlight Saudi Arabia’s growing role as a convening platform for global mining dialogue and collaboration, as it seeks to position the sector as a key pillar of economic diversification and long-term industrial development.
