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Middle East Daily
SOOJIN KIM
Research Analyst
DIFC Branch – Dubai
T: +44(4)387 5031
E: soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp
MUFG Bank, Ltd. and MUFG Securities plc
A member of MUFG, a global financial group
Middle East Daily
COMMODITIES / ENERGY
Oil holds steady as market awaits key supply outlook reports. Oil prices held steady after a three-day advance as markets awaited key reports that could clarify the outlook for global crude balances heading into 2026. Brent hovered near USD65/b and WTI stayed below USD61/b, while the narrowing prompt spread for WTI signalled easing market tightness. Persistent fears of a supply glut continued to weigh on sentiment, with OPEC and its allies restoring output and non-member producers ramping up supply. The International Energy Agency had previously forecast a record surplus for next year. Meanwhile, US sanctions on Russian major energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft have intensified efforts by European and Middle Eastern governments to secure operational continuity for the firms’ assets. Going forward, attention will turn to this week’s OPEC and IEA reports for signals on global supply-demand trends and price direction into early 2026.
Gold consolidates gains as focus to US labour weakness and policy outlook. Gold steadied after three consecutive days of gains, holding above USD4,145/oz as investors weighed signs of a weakening US labour market and the pending end of the government shutdown. Private data showing US companies cutting an average of 11,250 jobs per week reinforced expectations for more interest-rate reductions, which typically favour non-yielding assets like gold. The imminent reopening of the government is expected to restore access to official economic data, providing clarity for future monetary policy decisions. Although gold has retreated from last month’s record above USD4,380 amid profit-taking and continued outflows from ETF, gold remains up more than 55% this year, supported by sustained central bank purchases and its appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
MIDDLE EAST - MACRO / MARKETS
Egypt awaits next IMF review mission amid ongoing reform progress. Egypt’s Prime Minister confirmed that an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission will visit in the coming weeks to conduct the fifth and sixth reviews of the country’s USD8bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF), a crucial step to unlock the next tranche of funding. The visit follows the IMF team’s last review in July, during which both sides acknowledged progress on fiscal consolidation, exchange rate flexibility, and structural reforms aimed at strengthening private sector participation. However, the IMF delayed the next disbursement pending clearer evidence of asset sales, subsidy rationalisation, and reforms to enhance transparency in state-owned enterprises. Egypt has since accelerated its privatization drive and attracted new Gulf investments, including major real estate and energy projects, to bolster foreign currency reserves and rebuild investor confidence. Going forward, the success of the upcoming review will hinge on maintaining policy discipline and demonstrating continued commitment to the IMF-backed reform agenda, which remains central to stabilising the economy and restoring sustainable growth momentum.
Saudi Arabia strengthens us investment ties ahead of Washington summit. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Investment announced that it will host a US-Saudi Investment Summit in Washington DC on November 19, as part of its broader efforts to expand bilateral investment cooperation and deepen economic integration with the United States. The summit will coincide with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s official visit to Washington and his scheduled meeting with President Trump on November 18, highlighting the growing strategic alignment between the two nations in trade and investment. The event will convene senior policymakers, global investors, and corporate executives to explore new opportunities across high-growth sectors such as energy, technology, infrastructure, financial services, and healthcare. It follows Saudi Arabia’s earlier pledge of a USD600bn investment and procurement package in the US over a four-year horizon and underscores the Kingdom’s ambition to position itself as a global investment powerhouse under Vision 2030. Looking ahead, the focus will likely shift to the implementation of these commitments, regulatory coordination between the two markets, and the translation of announced projects into tangible capital inflows supporting Saudi Arabia’s diversification goals.
UAE nears trade pact with Chad to deepen Africa ties. The UAE announced it is in the final stages of negotiating a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with Chad, expected to be concluded by the end of 2025. The deal is part of the UAE’S broader strategy to deepen trade and investment ties across Africa, strengthen food security partnerships, and expand market access for Emirati goods and services. The CEPA aims to remove tariffs, enhance logistics connectivity, and promote investment cooperation in key sectors such as agriculture, energy, logistics, and infrastructure. Once finalised, the UAE-Chad CEPA will mark a new phase in the UAE’s economic diplomacy, supporting its non-oil diversification goals under “We the UAE 2031”, while providing Chad with greater integration into international supply chains and access to Gulf investment capital.
