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Latam Monthly Economic Report – March 2024
- Argentina
✓ President Milei had a setback with the omnibus bill in the Congress
✓ He needs to accept changes to attract moderate lawmakers in order to pass a watered-down version of the bill
✓ Positive initial economic figures, but a lot of work to do
- Chile
✓ GDP might recover after a mild contraction in 2023
✓ Inflation is going down, allowing BCCh to be aggressive in cutting the policy rate
✓ We expect a strong CLP along the year
- Colombia
✓ President Petro is working to pass the pension bill
✓ Inflation shows signs of deceleration, but it is still high
✓ Anyway, BanRep might continue slicing the policy rate, benefitting activity later in the year
- Mexico
✓ Presidential election in June with Morena candidate as favorite
✓ GDP recovering, inflation under control and expectation for the beginning of the easing cycle
✓ Several drivers to weaken MXN along 2024
- Peru
✓ President Boluarte suffered another attempt to impeach her, but she wasn’t strip from her post
✓ Inflation picked up and BCRP paused the monetary easing
✓ Activity poised to recover from the drop in 2023
