Key Points
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The Indonesian rupiah remains under downward pressure stemming from fiscal slippage, prospects of further BI rate cuts, narrowing trade surplus, and relatively weak foreign investor sentiment. We maintain our USDIDR forecast at 17,000 in Q1, before the pair possibly easing modestly towards 16,750 by end-2026, likely supported by further Fed rate cuts,
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Indonesia’s fiscal deficit widened to 2.9% of GDP in 2025, nearing the 3% deficit cap, given weak tax collections and rising interest debt burden (~25% of central government expenditure in H125) that constrain fiscal flexibility.
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BI held rates at 4.75% in December, prioritising rupiah stability. But we expect another 50bps rate cut to 4.25% in 2026, aligning with our estimate of a neutral BI policy stance, as policymakers remain dovish. That said, inflation risks are likely to constrain space for much deeper policy easing.
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Indonesia’s commodity exports are soft despite higher metal prices, cutting 11.6pp from overall yoy export growth in November and reducing external support for IDR. In addition, foreign investor sentiment also remains cautious. Although net foreign bond inflows have resumed since December (over US$ 400mn), they remain insufficient to offset the nearly US$4.7 billion net foreign bond outflows between September and November 2025.
