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FX & Macro Update for Turkey
- March Shock - Political uncertainty triggers unwind of TRY carry trades
- Response to Shock - Policy action to help dampen disruption
- Macro (I) - Turkey’s economy to slow further this year
- Macro (II) - Improving inflation to encourage cautious CBT easing
- Monetary policy - Improving inflation to encourage cautious CBT
- MUFG Forecasts -TRY weakness is unlikely to prevent CBT from lowering rates in response to slowing growth & inflation
