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FX Focus - FX & Macro Update for Turkey

FX & Macro Update for Turkey

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FX & Macro Update for Turkey

  • March Shock - Political uncertainty triggers unwind of TRY carry trades
  • Response to Shock - Policy action to help dampen disruption
  • Macro (I) - Turkey’s economy to slow further this year 
  • Macro (II) - Improving inflation to encourage cautious CBT easing
  • Monetary policy - Improving inflation to encourage cautious CBT
  • MUFG Forecasts -TRY weakness is unlikely to prevent CBT from lowering rates in response to slowing growth & inflation
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