European Outlook: Navigating European Rates & FX into year-end

The ECB has adjusted its policy setting but with European gas storage at seasonal lows and TTF prices hitting three-year highs the inflation fight may not be over. For now the data continues to suggest that second-round risks remain contained but the hawks will push for a more proactive policy response. The BoE faces a similar dilemma. Meanwhile, the UK’s first Budget under the new PM promises a familiar story of limited headroom and hard choices.

In this FX Focus report, we set out our rates & FX calls and examine the risks that could derail the European outlook into year-end. 

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