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China’s 2026 NPC sends out rational and pragmatic policy signals

A 4.5-5% growth target is set for 2026

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Key Points:

  • A 4.5-5% growth target is set for 2026, reflecting government’s plan for “structural adjustment, risk mitigation, reform, and laying a solid foundation for better development in the future.
  • A greater emphasis on high-quality development, original innovation and key core technologies, with 109 major projects mentioned in the 15th Five-Year Plan, and RMB800bn ultra-long special government bond and RMB800bn new policy financial instrument scheduled to unleash investment potential.
  • Striving to build a strong domestic market is with top priority for 2026. However with fiscal targets at par with last year, monetary policies likely play a larger role in stimulate consumption and investment. We expect RRR and policy rate cuts later this year.

A largely flat “broad” fiscal deficit ratio in 2026

20260306 China NPC

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