Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

We finished second in the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Poll for G10 FX & 13 FX Majors in Q4 2025.

Latest FX forecast update: 01 April 2026
G10 GDP & CPI: Our central scenario as of 1 April 2026

  • FX Rates

      Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026 Q1 2027
    DXY 100.040 97.880 96.430 96.340
    USD/JPY 158.00 156.00 154.00 152.00
    EUR/USD 1.1500 1.1800 1.2000 1.2000
    GBP/USD 1.3070 1.3330 1.3480 1.3330
    USD/CNY 6.8500 6.8300 6.8000 6.7800
    AUD/USD 0.7000 0.7100 0.7200 0.7200
    NZD/USD 0.5800 0.5900 0.6000 0.6000
    USD/CAD 1.3700 1.3600 1.3500 1.3400
    USD/NOK 9.7390 9.5760 9.5000 9.5000
    USD/SEK 9.4780 9.1530 8.9170 8.9170
    USD/CHF 0.7870 0.7710 0.7630 0.7670
             
    USD/CZK 21.390 20.760 20.330 20.250
    USD/HUF 330.40 317.80 312.50 316.70
    USD/PLN 3.7390 3.6270 3.5500 3.5330
    USD/RON 4.4430 4.3390 4.2670 4.2920
    USD/RUB 80.090 79.560 79.820 81.650
    USD/ZAR 17.300 17.000 16.700 16.400
    USD/TRY 46.500 48.500 50.500 52.000
             
    USD/INR 94.500 94.000 94.500 95.000
    USD/IDR 17000 16850 16700 16600
    USD/MYR 4.0500 3.9500 3.8000 3.7500
    USD/PHP 60.500 60.000 59.500 59.500
    USD/SGD 1.3000 1.2900 1.2600 1.2500
    USD/KRW 1510.0 1490.0 1470.0 1460.0
    USD/TWD 31.800 31.500 31.300 31.100
    USD/THB 33.900 33.600 32.300 32.100
    USD/VND 26400 26500 26600 26700
             
    USD/ARS 1450.0 1550.00 1650.0 1700.0
    USD/BRL 5.3000 5.3500 5.2500 5.2000
    USD/CLP 930.00 910.00 890.00 870.00
    USD/MXN 18.000 17.750 17.500 17.500
             
    USD/SAR 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500
    USD/EGP 48.500 50.000 51.500 53.000
  • Growth (GDP)

      2025 2026 2027
    US 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%
    Japan 0.8% 0.3% 0.9%
    Euro area 1.4% 0.7% 1.2%
       Germany 0.2% 0.5% 1.2%
       France 0.8% 0.6% 0.9%
       Italy 0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
    UK 1.4% 0.5% 1.2%
    Switzerland 1.3% 0.9% 1.3%
    Norway 1.8% 1.7% 1.7%
    Sweden 1.8% 1.5% 1.7%
    Canada 1.7% 1.0% 1.6%
    Australia 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
    New Zealand 0.2% 1.8% 2.3%
           
      2025 2026 2027
    China 5.0% 4.9% 4.8%
    India 7.6% 7.0% 6.8%
    Indonesia 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
    Malaysia 4.7% 4.5% 4.5%
    Philippines 4.7% 5.1% 5.4%
    Singapore 4.4% 3.2% 2.4%
    South Korea 1.0% 2.0% 2.2%
    Taiwan 8.6% 3.8% 2.7%
    Thailand 2.2% 1.8% 2.2%
    Vietnam 7.7% 8.2% 7.5%
           
      2025 2026 2027
    Bahrain 2.8% 3.2% 3.0%
    Czech Republic 2.4% 2.2% 2.3%
    Egypt 4.3% 4.6% 4.9%
    Hungary 0.5% 2.2% 2.4%
    Iraq 0.5% 3.6% 1.8%
    Israel 2.6% 4.1% 3.5%
    Jordan 2.7% 2.9% 2.9%
    Kenya 4.9% 5.0% 5.1%
    Kuwait 2.6% 3.6% 2.8%
    Morocco 4.6% 4.1% 4.0%
    Nigeria 3.9% 4.2% 3.9%
    Oman 2.7% 3.6% 3.3%
    Poland 3.3% 3.3% 2.9%
    Romania 1.0% 1.4% 2.8%
    Qatar 2.8% 5.6% 7.5%
    Russia 0.7% 1.0% 1.2%
    Saudi Arabia 4.3% 4.2% 3.4%
    South Africa 1.2% 1.4% 1.7%
    Turkey 3.6% 3.6% 3.9%
    Ukraine 1.9% 3.5% 4.1%
    UAE 4.7% 5.0% 4.4%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2025 2026 2027
    US 2.7% 3.1% 2.3%
    Japan 3.2% 2.6% 2.3%
    Euro area 2.1% 2.9% 2.2%
       Germany 2.3% 3.1% 2.4%
       France 0.9% 1.8% 1.9%
       Italy 1.6% 2.4% 2.0%
    UK 3.4% 3.5% 2.4%
    Switzerland 0.2% 0.9% 1.0%
    Norway 3.1% 3.0% 2.5%
    Sweden 0.7% 2.4% 2.3%
    Canada 2.1% 2.6% 2.2%
    Australia 2.8% 3.9% 2.9%
    New Zealand 2.8% 2.9% 2.3%
           
      2025 2026 2027
    China 0.1% 0.8% 1.0%
    India 1.6% 3.8% 4.3%
    Indonesia 1.9% 2.8% 2.8%
    Malaysia 1.6% 1.6% 1.8%
    Philippines 1.8% 2.4% 2.8%
    Singapore 0.9% 1.2% 1.5%
    South Korea 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
    Taiwan 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%
    Thailand -0.1% 0.5% 1.2%
    Vietnam 3.3% 3.8% 4.3%
           
      2025 2026 2027
    Bahrain 0.2% 1.1% 1.5%
    Czech Republic 2.5% 2.2% 2.3%
    Egypt 17.4% 11.8% 9.4%
    Hungary 4.5% 3.5% 3.3%
    Iraq  1.5% 2.5% 1.7%
    Israel 3.1% 2.1% 2.1%
    Jordan  2.0% 2.3% 2.2%
    Kenya 4.0% 5.0% 5.1%
    Kuwait  2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
    Morocco 1.2% 1.8% 2.0%
    Nigeria 22.2% 19.0% 14.9%
    Oman 0.9% 1.5% 1.8%
    Poland 3.8% 2.7% 2.7%
    Romania 7.3% 6.6% 3.8%
    Qatar 0.3% 2.2% 2.3%
    Russia 8.9% 5.4% 4.3%
    Saudi Arabia 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
    South Africa 3.3% 3.5% 3.3%
    Turkey 34.9% 24.9% 19.7%
    Ukraine 12.8% 7.4% 5.7%
    UAE 1.6% 2.0% 2.0%
  • Policy Rates

      Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026 Q1 2027
    Fed 3.64% 3.13% 2.88% 2.88%
    BoJ 1.00% 1.00% 1.25% 1.25%
    ECB 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
    BoE 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 3.75%
    SNB 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    Norges Bank 4.25% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
    Riksbank 1.75% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    BoC 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
    RBA 4.35% 4.35% 4.35% 4.35%
    RBNZ 2.25% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
             
      Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026
    China 7-day Reverse Repo 1.30% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
    China 1-year LPR 2.90% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
    India 5.25% 5.25% 5.25% 5.25%
    Indonesia 4.25% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
    Malaysia 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 4.25% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
    Singapore 1.14% 1.24% 1.38% 1.49%
    South Korea 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
    Taiwan 2.00% 2.00% 1.88% 1.88%
    Thailand 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.50% 4.75% 4.75%
             
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026 Q1 2027
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.50% 3.13% 3.00% 3.00%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.00% 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.30%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.50% 1.50% 1.60% 1.70%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.50% 2.50% 2.60% 2.60%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 4.40% 4.30% 3.90% 3.60%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.90% 4.70% 4.60% 4.40%

     

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