Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

In the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Rankings for Q3 2024, MUFG was ranked #3 for G10 FX & #2 for EMEA FX.

For individual G10 FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for EUR/USD, #2 for GBP/USD, #3 for AUD/USD, and #6 for NZD/USD. For EM FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for USD/RON, #2 for USD/HUF, #2 for USD/PLN, #2 for EUR/RUB, #3 for EUR/HUF and #4 for USD/CZK.

Latest FX forecast update: 01 August 2025

  • FX Rates

      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    DXY 98.240 96.720 95.140 93.600
    USD/JPY 146.00 144.00 142.00 140.00
    EUR/USD 1.1700 1.1900 1.2000 1.2200
    GBP/USD 1.3530 1.3680 1.3710 1.3860
    USD/CNY 7.2000 7.2500 7.2000 7.1500
    AUD/USD 0.6500 0.6600 0.6700 0.6800
    NZD/USD 0.6000 0.6100 0.6200 0.6300
    USD/CAD 1.3600 1.3500 1.3300 1.3200
    USD/NOK 10.171 9.916 9.750 9.508
    USD/SEK 9.573 9.328 9.167 8.852
    USD/CHF 0.8210 0.7900 0.7920 0.7870
             
    USD/CZK 20.850 20.420 20.170 19.670
    USD/HUF 340.20 336.10 336.70 332.80
    USD/PLN 3.6070 3.5630 3.5500 3.5080
    USD/RON 4.3330 4.2770 4.2580 4.2130
    USD/RUB 78.96 81.07 84.40 86.44
    USD/ZAR 17.500 17.250 16.750 17.000
    USD/TRY 42.250 44.500 46.500 47.500
             
    USD/INR 87.800 87.000 86.500 86.500
    USD/IDR 16030 15890 15770 15700
    USD/MYR 4.2000 4.1500 4.0800 4.0600
    USD/PHP 57.500 57.000 56.500 56.500
    USD/SGD 1.2800 1.2700 1.2600 1.2600
    USD/KRW 1380.0 1380.0 1375.0 1365.0
    USD/TWD 29.800 29.800 29.650 29.500
    USD/THB 32.800 32.500 32.400 32.300
    USD/VND 26400 26500 26600 26700
             
    USD/ARS 1250.0 1300.00 1350.0 1400.0
    USD/BRL 5.4000 5.3500 5.4500 5.5000
    USD/CLP 940.0 930.0 935.0 940.0
    USD/MXN 18.500 18.250 18.500 19.000
             
    USD/SAR 60.000 58.000 57.000 59.000
    USD/EGP 65.000 63.000 62.000 64.000
  • Growth (GDP)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.8% 1.5% 1.6%
    Japan 0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
    Euro area 0.9% 1.2% 1.2%
       Germany -0.2% 0.4% 1.1%
       France 1.2% 0.6% 0.7%
       Italy 0.7% 0.6% 0.9%
    UK 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%
    Switzerland 1.4% 1.0% 0.6%
    Norway 0.6% 1.4% 1.4%
    Sweden 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
    Canada 1.5% 1.3% 1.1%
    Australia 1.1% 1.8% 2.3%
    New Zealand -0.5% 1.1% 2.3%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
    India 6.0% 6.1% 6.5%
    Indonesia 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
    Malaysia 5.1% 4.1% 4.1%
    Philippines 5.6% 5.7% 6.0%
    Singapore 4.4% 1.9% 1.8%
    South Korea 2.1% 1.0% 1.6%
    Taiwan 4.6% 2.9% 2.6%
    Thailand 2.5% 2.2% 2.2%
    Vietnam 7.1% 5.5% 5.4%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 2.70% 2.78% 2.97%
    Czech Rep. -0.10% 1.81% 1.95%
    Egypt 4.10% 3.83% 4.34%
    Hungary 0.70% 1.20% 2.78%
    Iraq 0.03% -1.5% 1.44%
    Israel 0.50% 3.13% 3.80%
    Jordan 2.30% 2.55% 2.85%
    Kenya 5.00% 4.81% 5.02%
    Kuwait -0.90% 2.28% 3.04%
    Morocco 3.00% 3.90% 3.77%
    Nigeria 3.00% 3.26% 3.14%
    Oman 1.70% 2.57% 3.47%
    Poland 2.80% 3.27% 3.15%
    Romania 1.20% 1.55% 2.58%
    Qatar 2.00% 2.48% 5.43%
    Russia 3.60% 1.43% 1.13%
    Saudi Arabia 1.20% 3.39% 3.90%
    South Africa 0.70% 0.99% 1.44%
    Turkey 3.00% 2.80% 3.20%
    Ukraine 3.90% 2.30% 4.50%
    UAE 3.70% 4.27% 4.84%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%
    Japan 2.7% 2.8% 1.7%
    Euro area 2.4% 2.1% 1.8%
       Germany 2.5% 2.2% 2.0%
       France 2.3% 1.1% 1.5%
       Italy 1.1% 1.8% 1.7%
    UK 2.5% 3.4% 2.4%
    Switzerland 1.1% 0.3% 0.5%
    Norway 3.2% 2.7% 2.1%
    Sweden 2.9% 0.9% 1.6%
    Canada 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
    Australia 3.2% 2.4% 2.5%
    New Zealand 2.9% 2.4% 2.0%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
    India 4.6% 3.0% 4.1%
    Indonesia 2.3% 1.8% 1.8%
    Malaysia 1.8% 1.6% 1.6%
    Philippines 3.2% 1.8% 3.2%
    Singapore 2.4% 1.1% 1.5%
    South Korea 2.3% 2.0% 1.9%
    Taiwan 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%
    Thailand 0.4% 0.5% 1.0%
    Vietnam 3.6% 3.5% 3.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 1.0% 1.0% 1.6%
    Czech Rep. 2.5% 2.5% 2.1%
    Egypt 31.0% 17.7% 12.1%
    Hungary 3.7% 4.8% 3.5%
    Iraq 1.6% 2.5% 2.7%
    Israel 3.1% 2.9% 2.1%
    Jordan 1.5% 3.0% 2.4%
    Kenya 4.6% 4.2% 5.1%
    Kuwait 3.0% 2.5% 2.2%
    Morocco 1.6% 2.0% 2.3%
    Nigeria 32.6% 24.2% 26.9%
    Oman 0.7% 1.3% 1.8%
    Poland 3.8% 4.0% 3.1%
    Romania 5.5% 4.7% 3.5%
    Qatar 1.2% 1.3% 1.6%
    Russia 8.1% 9.2% 5.5%
    Saudi Arabia 1.7% 2.0% 2.0%
    South Africa 4.6% 3.6% 4.4%
    Turkey 59.9% 35.1% 22.5%
    Ukraine 6.1% 12.8% 7.3%
    UAE 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
  • Policy Rates

      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    Fed 4.13% 3.88% 3.63% 3.38%
    BoJ 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% 1.00%
    ECB 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.50%
    BoE 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25%
    SNB 0.00% -0.25% -0.25% -0.25%
    Norges Bank 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75%
    Riksbank 2.00% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
    BoC 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 2.00%
    RBA 3.60% 3.35% 3.10% 3.10%
    RBNZ 3.00% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
             
      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    China 7-day Repo 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 1.00%
    China 1-year LPR 2.80% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%
    India 5.50% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
    Indonesia 5.25% 5.00% 4.75% 4.50%
    Malaysia 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
    Singapore 1.67% 1.58% 1.53% 1.36%
    South Korea 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75%
    Taiwan 2.00% 1.88% 1.75% 1.63%
    Thailand 1.50% 1.25% 1.00% 1.00%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.75% 3.63% 3.50% 3.38%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.38% 4.25% 4.13% 4.00%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.90% 1.80% 1.70% 1.70%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.75% 2.60% 2.55% 2.55%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 0.80% 0.90% 1.10% 1.30%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 1.60% 1.70% 1.80% 1.80%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.90% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.55% 4.50% 4.35% 4.30%

     

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I also understand that all materials on this website are not investment research or investment advice.