Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

We finished second in the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Poll for G10 FX & 13 FX Majors in Q4 2025.

Latest FX forecast update: 07 January 2026

  • FX Rates

      Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026
    DXY 97.610 96.280 94.800 93.410
    USD/JPY 152.00 150.00 148.00 146.00
    EUR/USD 1.1800 1.2000 1.2200 1.2400
    GBP/USD 1.3490 1.3480 1.3630 1.3780
    USD/CNY 6.9500 6.9000 6.8500 6.8000
    AUD/USD 0.6800 0.6900 0.7000 0.7100
    NZD/USD 0.5900 0.5950 0.6000 0.6100
    USD/CAD 1.3800 1.3700 1.3500 1.3400
    USD/NOK 10.000 9.833 9.754 9.597
    USD/SEK 9.068 8.833 8.607 8.387
    USD/CHF 0.7970 0.7880 0.7790 0.7660
             
    USD/CZK 20.420 19.920 19.510 19.110
    USD/HUF 322.00 312.50 303.30 302.40
    USD/PLN 3.5590 3.4920 3.4180 3.3630
    USD/RON 4.3310 4.2670 4.1970 4.1530
    USD/RUB 78.63 79.82 80.98 83.03
    USD/ZAR 16.400 16.100 15.800 15.500
    USD/TRY 45.000 47.000 49.000 50.500
             
    USD/INR 90.500 91.500 92.000 92.000
    USD/IDR 17000 16850 16700 16750
    USD/MYR 4.0500 4.0300 4.0000 3.9500
    USD/PHP 58.800 59.000 59.200 59.500
    USD/SGD 1.2850 1.2800 1.2800 1.2750
    USD/KRW 1430.0 1410.0 1395.0 1385.0
    USD/TWD 30.900 30.700 30.600 30.500
    USD/THB 31.700 31.800 31.900 32.000
    USD/VND 26500 26600 26700 26800
             
    USD/ARS 1550.0 1650.00 1725.0 1800.0
    USD/BRL 5.3000 5.3000 5.4500 5.5000
    USD/CLP 900.00 880.00 870.00 860.00
    USD/MXN 18.200 18.000 17.900 17.800
             
    USD/SAR 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500
    USD/EGP 48.200 48.700 49.300 49.800
  • Growth (GDP)

      2025 2026 2027
    US 1.9% 1.8% 1.9%
    Japan 1.1% 0.6% 0.8%
    Euro area 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%
       Germany 0.3% 1.1% 1.4%
       France 0.8% 0.9% 1.1%
       Italy 0.5% 0.8% 0.8%
    UK 1.4% 1.2% 1.4%
    Switzerland 1.5% 0.9% 1.5%
    Norway 1.9% 1.5% 1.8%
    Sweden 1.1% 1.9% 2.0%
    Canada 1.2% 1.1% 1.6%
    Australia 1.8% 2.2% 2.2%
    New Zealand 0.2% 2.1% 2.5%
           
      2025 2026 2027
    China 4.9% 4.9% 4.8%
    India 7.6% 7.1% 6.8%
    Indonesia 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
    Malaysia 4.7% 4.5% 4.5%
    Philippines 4.7% 5.1% 5.4%
    Singapore 4.4% 3.2% 2.4%
    South Korea 1.0% 2.0% 2.2%
    Taiwan 7.1% 3.8% 2.7%
    Thailand 2.2% 1.8% 2.2%
    Vietnam 7.7% 8.2% 7.5%
           
      2025 2026 2027
    Bahrain 2.8% 3.1% 3.0%
    Czech Republic 2.3% 2.1% 2.3%
    Egypt 4.3% 4.6% 4.9%
    Hungary 0.5% 2.2% 2.4%
    Iraq 0.5% 3.6% 1.8%
    Israel 2.6% 4.1% 3.5%
    Jordan 2.6% 2.9% 3.0%
    Kenya 4.9% 5.0% 5.0%
    Kuwait 2.6% 3.5% 2.6%
    Morocco 4.4% 4.4% 3.9%
    Nigeria 3.7% 4.0% 3.8%
    Oman 2.7% 3.6% 3.1%
    Poland 3.3% 3.3% 3.0%
    Romania 1.0% 1.5% 2.8%
    Qatar 2.7% 5.7% 7.3%
    Russia 0.7% 1.1% 1.3%
    Saudi Arabia 4.2% 4.1% 3.5%
    South Africa 1.2% 1.3% 1.7%
    Turkey 3.5% 3.0% 3.5%
    Ukraine 2.1% 3.7% 4.7%
    UAE 4.7% 4.9% 4.3%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2025 2026 2027
    US 2.8% 2.7% 2.4%
    Japan 2.9% 1.6% 2.0%
    Euro area 2.1% 1.7% 1.8%
       Germany 2.2% 1.9% 1.8%
       France 1.0% 1.3% 1.6%
       Italy 1.7% 1.4% 1.5%
    UK 3.4% 2.3% 2.0%
    Switzerland 0.2% 0.7% 0.9%
    Norway 2.9% 2.3% 2.1%
    Sweden 0.8% 1.3% 1.9%
    Canada 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
    Australia 2.6% 2.6% 2.5%
    New Zealand 2.6% 2.1% 2.0%
           
      2025 2026 2027
    China 0.1% 0.8% 1.0%
    India 1.6% 3.8% 4.3%
    Indonesia 1.8% 2.8% 2.8%
    Malaysia 1.6% 1.6% 1.8%
    Philippines 1.8% 2.4% 2.8%
    Singapore 0.9% 1.2% 1.5%
    South Korea 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
    Taiwan 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%
    Thailand -0.1% 0.5% 1.2%
    Vietnam 3.3% 3.8% 4.3%
           
      2025 2026 2027
    Bahrain 0.3% 1.2% 1.6%
    Czech Republic 2.5% 2.2% 2.3%
    Egypt 17.6% 11.4% 9.3%
    Hungary 4.5% 3.6% 3.4%
    Iraq  1.5% 2.5% 1.7%
    Israel 3.1% 2.2% 2.1%
    Jordan  2.1% 2.2% 2.1%
    Kenya 4.1% 5.3% 5.1%
    Kuwait  2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
    Morocco 1.2% 1.8% 2.0%
    Nigeria 21.9% 19.4% 14.9%
    Oman 0.9% 1.4% 1.5%
    Poland 3.8% 2.8% 2.7%
    Romania 7.3% 6.5% 3.8%
    Qatar 0.4% 2.2% 2.3%
    Russia 8.9% 5.6% 4.3%
    Saudi Arabia 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
    South Africa 3.3% 3.6% 3.3%
    Turkey 35.0% 25.0% 20.0%
    Ukraine 12.9% 7.6% 5.7%
    UAE 1.7% 2.1% 2.0%
  • Policy Rates

      Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026
    Fed 3.38% 2.88% 2.88% 2.88%
    BoJ 0.75% 1.00% 1.00% 1.25%
    ECB 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    BoE 3.50% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25%
    SNB 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    Norges Bank 4.00% 3.75% 3.75% 3.50%
    Riksbank 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
    BoC 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
    RBA 3.60% 3.60% 3.60% 3.60%
    RBNZ 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
             
      Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026
    China 7-day Reverse Repo 1.25% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
    China 1-year LPR 2.85% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
    India 5.25% 5.25% 5.25% 5.25%
    Indonesia 4.25% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
    Malaysia 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%
    Singapore 1.25% 1.26% 1.40% 1.50%
    South Korea 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
    Taiwan 2.00% 2.00% 1.88% 1.88%
    Thailand 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.50% 4.75% 4.75%
             
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.50% 3.13% 3.00% 2.88%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.13% 3.88% 3.75% 3.63%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 2.00% 2.05% 2.10% 2.20%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.90% 2.85% 2.80% 2.75%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.15% 1.25% 1.35% 1.50%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.20% 2.30% 2.40% 2.50%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.60% 3.40% 3.30% 3.30%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.40% 4.35% 4.30% 4.25%

     

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