Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.


Latest FX forecast update: 02 October 2025

  • FX Rates

      Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026
    DXY 95.710 93.720 92.460 91.670
    USD/JPY 144.00 142.00 140.00 138.00
    EUR/USD 1.2000 1.2300 1.2500 1.2600
    GBP/USD 1.3640 1.3820 1.3890 1.4000
    USD/CNY 7.1000 7.0500 7.0000 6.9500
    AUD/USD 0.6700 0.6800 0.6900 0.6900
    NZD/USD 0.5900 0.6000 0.6200 0.6200
    USD/CAD 1.3700 1.3600 1.3400 1.3300
    USD/NOK 9.7500 9.5120 9.2800 9.1270
    USD/SEK 9.2080 8.9020 8.7200 8.5710
    USD/CHF 0.7830 0.7720 0.7680 0.7620
             
    USD/CZK 20.170 19.510 19.120 18.890
    USD/HUF 325.00 313.00 305.60 301.60
    USD/PLN 3.5500 3.4720 3.4240 3.3970
    USD/RON 4.2420 4.1540 4.0960 4.0790
    USD/RUB 84.400 85.180 86.290 87.740
    USD/ZAR 17.300 17.100 16.900 16.800
    USD/TRY 43.000 44.500 46.000 47.250
             
    USD/INR 88.900 89.500 89.700 89.700
    USD/IDR 16900 17000 16850 16700
    USD/MYR 4.1500 4.0800 4.0600 4.0600
    USD/PHP 57.000 56.500 56.500 57.000
    USD/SGD 1.2700 1.2600 1.2600 1.2600
    USD/KRW 1380.0 1370.0 1360.0 1350.0
    USD/TWD 30.200 30.000 29.800 29.700
    USD/THB 32.500 32.400 32.300 32.300
    USD/VND 26500 26600 26700 26800
             
    USD/ARS 1400.0 1450.0 1500.0 1600.0
    USD/BRL 5.3500 5.3000 5.2500 5.2000
    USD/CLP 945.00 935.00 935.00 935.00
    USD/MXN 18.500 18.250 18.000 18.000
             
    USD/SAR 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500
    USD/EGP 51.500 52.000 54.000 55.500
  • Growth (GDP)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.8% 1.5% 1.6%
    Japan 0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
    Euro area 0.9% 1.2% 1.2%
       Germany -0.2% 0.4% 1.1%
       France 1.2% 0.6% 0.7%
       Italy 0.7% 0.6% 0.9%
    UK 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%
    Switzerland 1.4% 1.0% 0.6%
    Norway 0.6% 1.4% 1.4%
    Sweden 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
    Canada 1.5% 1.3% 1.1%
    Australia 1.1% 1.8% 2.3%
    New Zealand -0.5% 1.1% 2.3%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 5.0% 4.9% 4.6%
    India 6.5% 6.6% 6.4%
    Indonesia 5.0% 4.8% 4.8%
    Malaysia 5.1% 4.1% 4.1%
    Philippines 5.6% 5.5% 5.5%
    Singapore 4.4% 1.9% 1.8%
    South Korea 2.1% 1.0% 1.6%
    Taiwan 4.6% 4.6% 2.5%
    Thailand 2.5% 2.2% 2.2%
    Vietnam 7.1% 6.9% 7.4%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 2.70% 2.78% 2.95%
    Czech Rep. -0.10% 1.86% 1.95%
    Egypt 4.10% 4.05% 4.35%
    Hungary 0.70% 1.10% 2.63%
    Iraq 0.03% -1.50% 1.44%
    Israel 0.50% 2.93% 3.90%
    Jordan 2.30% 2.55% 2.85%
    Kenya 5.00% 4.86% 5.02%
    Kuwait -0.90% 2.33% 2.91%
    Morocco 3.00% 3.95% 4.12%
    Nigeria 3.00% 3.47% 3.40%
    Oman 1.70% 2.57% 3.37%
    Poland 2.80% 3.25% 3.10%
    Romania 1.20% 1.37% 2.38%
    Qatar 2.00% 2.51% 5.46%
    Russia 3.60% 0.98% 1.15%
    Saudi Arabia 1.20% 3.90% 4.00%
    South Africa 0.70% 1.00% 1.40%
    Turkey 3.00% 2.98% 3.40%
    Ukraine 3.90% 2.25% 4.28%
    UAE 3.70% 4.30% 4.74%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%
    Japan 2.7% 2.8% 1.7%
    Euro area 2.4% 2.1% 1.8%
       Germany 2.5% 2.2% 2.0%
       France 2.3% 1.1% 1.5%
       Italy 1.1% 1.8% 1.7%
    UK 2.5% 3.4% 2.4%
    Switzerland 1.1% 0.3% 0.5%
    Norway 3.2% 2.7% 2.1%
    Sweden 2.9% 0.9% 1.6%
    Canada 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
    Australia 3.2% 2.4% 2.5%
    New Zealand 2.9% 2.4% 2.0%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
    India 4.6% 2.0% 3.5%
    Indonesia 2.3% 1.8% 1.8%
    Malaysia 1.8% 1.6% 1.6%
    Philippines 3.2% 1.8% 3.0%
    Singapore 2.4% 0.6% 1.0%
    South Korea 2.3% 2.0% 1.9%
    Taiwan 2.2% 1.7% 1.7%
    Thailand 0.4% 0.0% 1.0%
    Vietnam 3.6% 3.5% 4.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 1.0% 0.9% 1.6%
    Czech Rep. 2.5% 2.5% 2.1%
    Egypt 31.0% 17.6% 11.8%
    Hungary 3.7% 4.8% 3.6%
    Iraq 1.6% 2.5% 2.7%
    Israel 3.1% 2.9% 2.1%
    Jordan 1.5% 3.0% 2.4%
    Kenya 4.6% 4.2% 5.0%
    Kuwait 3.0% 2.5% 2.2%
    Morocco 1.6% 1.7% 2.0%
    Nigeria 32.6% 24.2% 27.2%
    Oman 0.7% 1.2% 1.7%
    Poland 3.8% 4.1% 3.1%
    Romania 5.5% 5.5% 4.5%
    Qatar 1.2% 1.3% 1.7%
    Russia 8.1% 9.1% 5.5%
    Saudi Arabia 1.7% 2.0% 2.0%
    South Africa 4.6% 3.6% 4.2%
    Turkey 59.9% 35.2% 23.4%
    Ukraine 6.1% 12.9% 7.5%
    UAE 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%
  • Policy Rates

      Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026
    Fed 3.63% 3.38% 3.13% 2.88%
    BoJ 0.75% 0.75% 1.00% 1.00%
    ECB 2.00% 1.75% 1.75% 1.50%
    BoE 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.25%
    SNB 0.00% -0.25% -0.25% -0.25%
    Norges Bank 4.00% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75%
    Riksbank 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
    BoC 2.25% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    RBA 3.35% 3.10% 3.10% 3.10%
    RBNZ 2.50% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
             
      Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026
    China 7-day Reverse Repo 1.25% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
    China 1-year LPR 2.85% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
    India 5.25% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
    Indonesia 4.25% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
    Malaysia 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 4.75% 4.75% 4.50% 4.50%
    Singapore 1.37% 1.34% 1.26% 1.40%
    South Korea 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.75%
    Taiwan 2.00% 1.88% 1.75% 1.63%
    Thailand 1.25% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.38% 3.25% 3.13% 3.00%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.00% 3.88% 3.75% 3.63%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.95% 1.85% 1.80% 1.80%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.70% 2.60% 2.55% 2.50%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.00% 1.10% 1.20% 1.30%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 1.70% 1.80% 1.80% 1.90%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.90% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.70% 4.50% 4.40% 4.35%

     

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