Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

In the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Rankings for Q3 2024, MUFG was ranked #3 for G10 FX & #2 for EMEA FX.

For individual G10 FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for EUR/USD, #2 for GBP/USD, #3 for AUD/USD, and #6 for NZD/USD. For EM FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for USD/RON, #2 for USD/HUF, #2 for USD/PLN, #2 for EUR/RUB, #3 for EUR/HUF and #4 for USD/CZK.

Latest FX forecast update: 16 May 2025

  • FX Rates

      Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026
    USD/JPY 144.00 142.00 140.00 138.00
    EUR/USD 1.1200 1.1500 1.1800 1.2000
    GBP/USD 1.3180 1.3370 1.3640 1.3790
    USD/CNY 7.2000 7.2500 7.3000 7.3000
    AUD/USD 0.6200 0.6300 0.6500 0.6600
    NZD/USD 0.5800 0.5900 0.6000 0.6200
    USD/CAD 1.4000 1.3800 1.3600 1.3500
    USD/NOK 10.536 10.435 10.000 9.583
    USD/SEK 9.911 9.739 9.322 8.917
    USD/CHF 0.8300 0.8170 0.8050 0.7920
             
    USD/CZK 22.230 21.570 20.930 20.500
    USD/HUF 361.60 356.50 351.70 345.80
    USD/PLN 3.7950 3.6960 3.6440 3.5830
    USD/RON 4.4460 4.3390 4.2460 4.1920
    USD/RUB 81.59 78.69 79.56 82.57
    USD/ZAR 18.750 19.250 19.000 18.750
    USD/TRY 40.000 41.500 44.000 46.000
             
    USD/INR 85.000 84.500 84.000 83.500
    USD/IDR 16625 16410 16200 16100
    USD/MYR 4.3900 4.4100 4.4500 4.3100
    USD/PHP 56.300 55.600 55.000 54.500
    USD/SGD 1.3300 1.3400 1.3500 1.3100
    USD/KRW 1445.0 1455.0 1445.0 1435.0
    USD/TWD 32.600 32.800 32.600 32.500
    USD/THB 34.000 34.100 34.400 33.400
    USD/VND 26200 26300 26400 26400
             
    USD/ARS 1225.0 1275.00 1325.0 1400.0
    USD/BRL 5.7000 5.8000 5.9000 5.8000
    USD/CLP 960.0 980.0 990.0 980.0
    USD/MXN 20.000 19.750 19.500 19.000
             
    USD/SAR 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500
    USD/EGP 50.800 51.000 51.200 51.400
  • Growth (GDP)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.8% 1.5% 1.6%
    Japan 0.1% 1.0% 0.6%
    Euro area 0.9% 0.8% 1.1%
       Germany -0.2% 0.1% 1.1%
       France 1.2% 0.5% 0.8%
       Italy 0.7% 0.5% 0.7%
    UK 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%
    Switzerland 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
    Norway 0.6% 1.2% 1.4%
    Sweden 1.0% 1.8% 2.0%
    Canada 1.5% 1.3% 1.1%
    Australia 1.1% 2.0% 2.3%
    New Zealand -0.5% 1.1% 2.3%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 5.0% 4.6% 4.7%
    India 6.0% 6.4% 6.5%
    Indonesia 5.0% 4.6% 5.0%
    Malaysia 5.1% 4.1% 4.5%
    Philippines 5.6% 6.1% 6.5%
    Singapore 4.4% 1.5% 2.7%
    South Korea 2.1% 1.6% 2.0%
    Taiwan 4.6% 3.1% 2.5%
    Thailand 2.5% 2.2% 3.3%
    Vietnam 7.1% 5.5% 6.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 2.70% 3.00% 2.90%
    Czech Rep. -0.10% 2.30% 2.40%
    Egypt 4.10% 4.20% 4.80%
    Hungary 0.70% 2.30% 3.20%
    Iraq 0.03% 4.07% 5.20%
    Israel 0.50% 3.50% 3.90%
    Jordan 2.30% 2.60% 2.70%
    Kenya 5.00% 5.00% 5.30%
    Kuwait -0.90% 3.00% 2.90%
    Morocco 3.00% 3.90% 3.80%
    Nigeria 3.00% 3.30% 3.40%
    Oman 1.70% 3.20% 3.00%
    Poland 2.80% 3.30% 3.20%
    Romania 1.20% 2.90% 2.90%
    Qatar 2.00% 2.70% 5.20%
    Russia 3.60% 1.60% 1.40%
    Saudi Arabia 1.20% 4.60% 4.60%
    South Africa 0.70% 1.70% 1.90%
    Turkey 3.00% 2.60% 3.50%
    Ukraine 3.90% 3.40% 4.80%
    UAE 3.70% 5.00% 4.20%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 3.0% 3.1% 2.8%
    Japan 2.7% 2.3% 1.4%
    Euro area 2.4% 2.0% 2.0%
       Germany 2.5% 2.2% 2.1%
       France 2.3% 1.1% 1.7%
       Italy 1.1% 1.9% 1.7%
    UK 2.5% 3.0% 2.2%
    Switzerland 1.1% 0.3% 0.8%
    Norway 3.2% 2.4% 2.1%
    Sweden 2.9% 1.1% 1.7%
    Canada 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
    Australia 3.2% 2.4% 2.5%
    New Zealand 2.9% 2.0% 2.0%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 0.2% 1.0% 1.7%
    India 4.7% 4.1% 4.3%
    Indonesia 2.3% 1.8% 3.0%
    Malaysia 1.8% 1.6% 2.4%
    Philippines 3.2% 2.4% 3.0%
    Singapore 2.4% 1.1% 1.8%
    South Korea 2.3% 2.0% 1.6%
    Taiwan 2.2% 1.8% 1.7%
    Thailand 0.4% 1.0% 2.0%
    Vietnam 3.6% 3.9% 3.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 1.0% 1.7% 1.9%
    Czech Rep. 2.5% 2.3% 2.1%
    Egypt 31.0% 18.5% 12.0%
    Hungary 3.7% 4.2% 3.5%
    Iraq 1.6% 3.5% 3.5%
    Israel 3.1% 2.9% 2.3%
    Jordan 1.5% 2.0% 2.2%
    Kenya 4.6% 4.9% 5.2%
    Kuwait 3.0% 2.5% 2.3%
    Morocco 1.6% 2.2% 2.1%
    Nigeria 32.6% 25.8% 15.0%
    Oman 0.7% 1.3% 1.2%
    Poland 3.8% 4.4% 3.2%
    Romania 5.5% 3.9% 3.9%
    Qatar 1.2% 1.7% 1.9%
    Russia 8.1% 7.6% 5.4%
    Saudi Arabia 1.7% 1.9% 1.9%
    South Africa 4.6% 4.1% 4.5%
    Turkey 59.9% 32.5% 21.0%
    Ukraine 6.1% 11.6% 6.7%
    UAE 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%
  • Policy Rates

      Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026
    Fed 4.38% 3.88% 3.38% 3.38%
    BoJ 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% 1.00%
    ECB 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.50%
    BoE 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50%
    SNB 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
    Norges Bank 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75%
    Riksbank 2.25% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    BoC 2.25% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    RBA 3.85% 3.60% 3.35% 3.35%
    RBNZ 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.75%
             
      Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026
    China 7-day Repo 1.30% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
    China 1-year MLF 1.70% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
    China 1-year LPR 2.90% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
    India 6.00% 5.50% 5.25% 5.25%
    Indonesia 5.50% 5.25% 5.25% 5.00%
    Malaysia 3.00% 2.75% 2.75% 2.50%
    Philippines 5.50% 5.25% 4.75% 4.75%
    Singapore 2.25% 2.30% 2.15% 2.10%
    South Korea 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 2.00%
    Taiwan 2.00% 1.88% 1.75% 1.75%
    Thailand 1.75% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 4.00%
             
      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    Bahrain 6.00% 5.75% 5.75% 5.50%
    Czech Rep. 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.25%
    Egypt 25.00% 22.00% 20.00% 18.25%
    Hungary 6.50% 6.50% 6.25% 5.75%
    Iraq 4.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
    Israel 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% 4.00%
    Jordan 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% 6.75%
    Kenya 10.75% 10.50% 10.25% 9.75%
    Kuwait 4.00% 3.75% 3.65% 3.50%
    Morocco 2.50% 2.25% 2.25% 2.00%
    Nigeria 27.50% 27.00% 26.00% 25.00%
    Oman 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% 4.50%
    Poland 5.75% 5.75% 5.50% 5.00%
    Romania 6.50% 6.00% 5.25% 4.50%
    Qatar 4.85% 4.50% 4.50% 4.25%
    Russia 21.00% 19.00% 18.00% 17.00%
    Saudi Arabia 4.50% 4.25% 4.25% 4.00%
    South Africa 7.50% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00%
    Turkey 42.50% 37.50% 32.50% 28.50%
    Ukraine 15.50% 15.00% 14.00% 13.50%
    UAE 4.25% 4.00% 4.00% 3.75%
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.88% 3.63% 3.38% 3.50%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.25% 4.38% 4.25% 4.00%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.80% 1.60% 1.55% 1.60%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.40% 2.30% 2.50% 2.80%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 0.70% 0.80% 0.95% 1.05%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 1.35% 1.50% 1.60% 1.70%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 4.00% 3.70% 3.70% 3.60%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.50% 4.20% 4.20% 4.30%
  • Commodities

      Unit Q2-25 Q3-25 Q4-25 Q1-26 Q2-26 Q3-26 Q4-26   2025 2026 2027
    US Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 3.6 3.75 4.00 4.15 4.25 4.05 4.20   3.78 4.16 4.25
    EU Natural Gas EUR/MWh 38.00 33.00 29.00 31.00 28.00 24.00 23.00   36.68 26.50 29.00
    WTI Crude USD/b 60.00 58.00 57.00 59.00 57.00 58.00 55.00   61.26 57.25 60.00
    Brent Crude USD/b 65.00 63.00 62.00 64.00 62.00 63.00 60.00   65.92 62.25 65.00
    EU ETS EUA EUR/MT 70.00 72.00 70.00 73.00 75.00 78.00 80.00   71.78 76.50 80.00
                             
    Copper USD/lb 9,150 9,250 9,750 10,050 10,250 10,550 10,850   9,390 10,425 11,500
    Aluminium USD/MT 2,450 2,600 2,775 2,950 3,050 3,200 3,275   2,612 3,119 3,200
    Zinc USD/MT 2,600 2,725 2,775 2,825 2,850 2,925 2,950   2,743 2,888 3,050
    Nickel USD/MT 15,800 16,250 16,500 16,750 16,800 16,500 16,250   16,084 16,575 16,750
                             
    Gold USD/t oz 3,375 3,600 3,850 3,950 4,050 4,250 4,350   3,421 4,150 4,025
    Silver USD/t oz 33.50 34.75 35.50 36.75 38.00 38.25 38.75   34.17 37.94 36.50
    Platinum USD/t oz 975 1,020 1,045 1,075 1,125 1,180 1,225   1,009 1,151 1,175
    Palladium USD/t oz 960 925 900 875 890 925 900   940 898 925
                             
    Hard Coking Coal USD/MT 175.00 180.00 175.00 195.00 200.00 205.00 195.00   180.25 198.75 225.00
    Iron Ore USD/MT 97.50 100.00 105.00 100.00 95.00 97.50 95.00   101.02 96.88 95.00
                             
    Soybean USD/bu 1,015 1,025 1,000 975 980 1,020 1,000   1,023 993.75 975
    Wheat USD/bu 550.00 545.00 560.00 585.00 575.00 600.00 580.00   558.33 585.00 575.00
    Corn USD/bu 480.00 470.00 460.00 445.00 440.00 450.00 445.00   473.95 445.00 460.00
    Cotton USD/lb 65.50 67.00 68.00 69.50 71.50 72.00 73.00   67.26 71.50 70.00
    Coffee USD/lb 380.00 375.00 390.00 375.00 350.00 400.00 425.00   376.74 387.50 395.00
    Sugar USD/lb 18.00 17.75 18.50 19.25 19.75 20.25 20.50   18.10 19.94 20.50

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I also understand that all materials on this website are not investment research or investment advice.