The US administration has signified a strong preference for lower oil prices to support the American consumer. We believe loose supply-demand fundamentals could help achieve this goal even without any action from the administration. The dent to global demand that the imposition of US tariffs will impose has reinforced our bearish oil price thesis with the trajectory unambiguously to the downside.
Forecasting oil market conditions is challenging under the best of times, but at the current juncture, all estimates come with larger-than-usual uncertainty intervals. In this context, and given the fat tail risks that exist in today’s environment, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s parameterisation of scenarios for global oil markets to frame how low oil price can go.
The MUFG Global Markets Podcast can be found directly on our MUFG Podbean page or via a number of platforms, including Spotify, Apple, and Stitcher.
