Revising our oil price call – lower trajectory on higher supply (not weaker demand)
- Executive summary
- Searching for a new oil price narrative: lower on supply beats
- Supply – higher-than-expected OPEC+ (sanctioned) supply
- Demand – above expectations (contrary to conventional wisdom)
- Fundamentals – easing supply tightness in H2 2023
- Long-term thesis – oil supply scarcity will bite
- Oil price forecasts
- Key charts – contextualising the oil market complex
